Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION ...MORE ON SECOND PAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 AM CDT FRI APR 11 1997
...VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUTATION UNDERWAY...

MCS THAT MOVED INTO THE SW ZONES SHOULD SLOW IN ITS NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE EAST AFTER 3 AM.  LOW LEVEL/MESOSCALE
FEATURES INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT TRAINING WILL BE A PROBLEM
THROUGH 12Z.  AND TO TOP IT ALL OFF IT APPEARS FROM WATER VAPOR THAT
OUTFLOW JET BECOMING PRONOUNCED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COMPLEX
HELPING IN THE ORGANIZATION.  RADAR ALREADY INDICATING STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 5 INCHES NEAR EL CAMPO AND 9 TO 10
INCHES NEAR HALLETSVILLE! (SOME OF THE PRECIP OVER THESE AREAS MAY BE
GETTING SOME HAIL CONTAMINATION...ALTHOUGH SO FAR NO GROUNDTRUTH BACK
OF HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.)  ALSO OF NOTE THE VERY STRONG MESO ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING PSEUDO WARM FRONT OVER WATER.  AT THIS RATE NOT ONLY
WILL WE HAVE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT SEVERE AS WELL.  WILL NEED TO
EXPAND FFA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND MUCH FURTHER EAST AND ADD
MENTION OF SEVERE FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT TREMENDOUS THE TURNING IS IMPRESSIVE AND THE CAPE IS
RATHER APPARENT BY LOOKING AT THE REFLECTIVITY MAXIMA ALOFT A NUMBER
OF STORMS DEVELOPING STRONG MESOS OVER THE SW ZONES.

LATEST 3HR PRECIP ESTIMATES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES.
...........................................................
245 AM
COMPLEX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK.
WILL RUN FFA SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIBERTY LINE.
ON DOWN THE ROAD AFTER THIS FIRST COMPLEX SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THE AREA OUT AND PRODUCING GUSTS
NEAR GALE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND 01Z.  MAY BECOME PARTLY
CLUODY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CURSORY LOOK AT NUMBERS FOLLOWS

CLL 78/47/62/46  5200
IAH 79/51/64/46  7300
GLS 77/59/66/56  8500

TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-120000-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
826 AM CDT FRI APR 11 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE RISK AREA
ARE BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...HUNSTVILLE...HOUSTON...CONROE...
LIBERTY...GALVESTON...AND ANGLETON.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...
LEAVING A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.  A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COLLEGE
STATION AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE CITY OF HOUSTON BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR MIDNIGHT.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT...THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE
GROUND SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINS...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPERIENCED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE URGED TO STAY ALERT TO THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.  STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
LATER UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.