Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 AM EDT WED JUL 23 1997

ALL: CONT FFA WHERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. RAH MAY WANT TO CONSIDER
     INCLUDING RMNDR OF FOOTHILLS AND SRN PIEDMONT FOR TNT AND THU.

SFC LOW THAT WAS DANNY APPRNG TO PICK UP A LTL SPEED PAST FEW
HRS...NOW LOCATED NEAR ANB. MEANWHILE...CNVCTN CONTS IN BANDS FAR
AWAY FROM CIRCULATION...ONE BAND N OF AND THROUGH GREENVILLE INTO
GREENWOOD COUNTY. CNVCTN ALSO CONTG ALONG OLD SFC BNDRY CLT METRO
AREA NORTH INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING THERE
ATTM...ARND 2 INCHES PAST 2 HRS N OF CLT AND 3-HRLY AND 6-HRLY
TOTALS EXCEEDING FFG NOW STANLY AND CABARRUS COUNTIES.

MDLS DIFFER AGAIN ON HANDLING OF DANNY. INTERESTING THAT NONE OF THE
SHORT RANGE MDLS CONTS SFC LOW IN ITS PRESENT FORM BUT ALL CARRY
STRNG VORT CNTR ACRS CWA THIS PD. NGM TOO FAST...TAKING SFC LOW WELL
NE OF CWA BY TNT..AND DRYING OUT LWR LVLS TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...ETA AND AVN TOO SLOW IN MVMNT. COMPROMISE NEEDED XPCT SFC
LOW TO BE BETWEEN ANDERSON AND ATHENS BY LATE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN
VCNTY INTO THU.

FURTHER COMPLICATIONS ARISE THURSDAY...WTH ETA/AVN SUGSTG OLD FRNTL
BNDRY ACRS N VA PUSHED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRNGR
UPR TROF DIGGGING OUT OF HI PLAINS AND BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH.
TROPICAL MOISTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THAT TIME...ENHANCING HI
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GRIDS SUGGST THTE RIDGE WED NGT AND THU ALNG
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS.

FCST WISE...WUD XPCT CONVECTION ALNG SFC BNDRY SRN NC TO DIE DOWN IN
PREDAWN. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAKE ON BANDING-TYPE STRUCTURE THROUGH
ERLY AFTN UNTIL REMNANTS GET CLOSE ENUF FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NE
GA AND WRN HALF OF UPSTATE. LIKELY NC MTNS..AND CUDNT ARGUE WITH
LIKLEY SRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS NC. CATEGORICAL ALL LOCATIONS TNT INTO
THU. KEEP HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN ZONES.

RE FFA: KEEP UP NE GA AND NC MTNS. BASED ON HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL TUE
EVNG AND SO FAR THIS MORNING...FFA MAY NOT BE A BAD IDEA RMNDR OF
NC FOOTHILLS AND SRN PIEDMONT FOR WED NGT AND THU. SC UPST PROBABLY
OK AT THIS JUNCTR...BUT CAE SHUD HAVE ONE READY TO GO ONCE WE HAVE A
BETTER GRASP ON EVNTUAL TRACK OF SFC LOW SHUD HVY RAIN DVLP IN MOST
LOCATIONS BEFOREHAND.

AVL  79/70/81  7/8/7
CLT  84/75/85  5/7/8
GSP  83/75/85  7/8/7

BURRUS