Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT (213 PM CDT) WED JUN 11 1997

CHALLENGES THIS TM ARND INCLUDE POPS FOR TNGT AND IMPACT OF WRN CUT
OFF LOW BY PD 4.

DRY LN / WND SHIFT HAS BEEN NEARLY STNRY ALG A IML/GLD/TRB LN
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. SHRT WV TO THE N WHICH IS SETTING OFF SVR WX
IN NEB APPRS SHEARED OUT ON THE SRN END AND PULL FM THIS WV IS NOT
STG ENOUGH TO PUSH LN MUCH TO THE E...PARTICULARLY GVN THE FALLING
PRESSURES IN ERN CO. GVN THIS ADDED CNVGNCE...FEEL AT LEAST SOME
POPS ARE WARRENTED AS FAR W AS EXTRM WRN KS AND SWRN NEB TNGT. SOME
CNVTN ALREADY TRYING TO FIRE OVR CO ZNS IN THE MUCH DRIER AIR.
SLIGHTLY HIER POPS IN ERN ZNS REQUIRED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCOMING BOUNDARIES FM THE W.

NXT QN WL BE WHEN TO XPC 1ST MAJ IMPL EJECTED BY DIGGING W CST SYS.
THE THREE BIG MODELS IN REMARKEDLY GD AGRMNT WITH TIMING AND ARE
GENRLY FOLLOWED THOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR PERFORMANCE IN THIS
TYPE OF PAT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...SO WL BROAD BRUSH A BIT.

WOULD XPCD INCR IN POPS THU NGT AS 1ST WV MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK OFF
SYS AS MODELS SUGGEST AND WL KEEP POPS IN CHC CTGY WITH ABNDT CLDS
FOR PD 4 WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

OVERALL...TEMPS ARE CLOSE BTN FAN AND FWC AND WL GENRLY FOLLOW.

GLD  055/086/055/076 2-33   HLC  059/084/060/077 4-23
CBK  056/085/057/077 2-33   MCK  056/083/057/077 2-33
TRB  058/086/057/077 2-33   ITR  053/085/057/077 -134

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-120600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MDT (226 PM CDT) WED JUN 11 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS...

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AND EAST
OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO LINE.  SUNNY SKIES
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA.  AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXTREME
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS A LINE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
DIRECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO WARRANT A THREAT OF TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

ENTWISTLE

KSZ027>029-041-042-120150-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT WED JUN 11 1997

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT (8 PM MDT)...

WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES ARE UNDER A
TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE
TO THESE FIVE COUNTIES.

CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER...WIND GUSTS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
DO TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE...AND TORNADOES.

TAKE THE TIME NOW TO REVIEW WHAT YOU WOULD DO SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
APPROACH YOU.  THUNDERSTORMS CAN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND BECOME SEVERE
BEFORE A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.  TORNADOES CAN AND DO
DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WINDS STRONGER THAN 60 MPH AND/OR HAIL
THE SIZE OF DIMES OR LARGER.

SHOULD YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
TORNADO WATCH.

ENTWISTLE