Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT (330 PM CDT) SUN JUL 27 1997

...ONCE AGAIN...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE CENTRAL US FROM
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS HAD INCREASED TO OVER 100 KTS AT
300 MB ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER (WITH 105 KT OVER EXTRM SW
MANITOBA). AXIS OF MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED FROM ELP TO ABQ TO DEN TO
VTN. EAST EDGE OF MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM ABOUT AMA TO GLD TO LBF.

FOLLOWED THE NGM FOR THE FCST POSTN OF THE UPPER HIGH SINCE THIS
MODEL DID OK YESTERDAY MORNING AND INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EVEN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS FCST YESTERDAY. THE HIGH IS FCST TO BE CENTERED OVER
EXTRM SW KS BY 28/12Z ACCORDING TO THE NGM. EXPECT THE MAIN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA...EXPECT THE BEST
DYNAMICS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. 300 MB WIND FCST SHOWS
SPEEDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 KTS OVER NEBRASKA
AND BELOW 30 KTS OVER KANSAS. SO VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE WEST...MAIN THREAT FOR PCPN
WILL BE FROM LOW LEVEL FORCING.

ATMOSPHERE STILL RICH WITH MOISTURE. PRECIPATABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 1.25 INCH. THEREFORE...BELIEVE KEY TO PCPN FCST WILL BE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OUTFLOW BNDRY
HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
BNDRY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
REORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STRONGEST
CAA REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
SHOWED BEST CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL FORCING WAS AFTER MONDAY NOON.

SKIPPER

THE OTHER MAIN THREAT FOR PCPN