Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 PM MDT (201 PM CDT) TUE JUL 15 1997

MAIN PROBLEM TODAY IS EVENING POPS AND THEN HOW WARM WILL IT GET.

WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
CO HAS DEVELOPED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ALREADY SOME SMALL HAIL
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN YUMA. THE INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE DRY
LINE HAS FIRED THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS FA...IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. QUESTION IS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH WARMING 700 MB TEMPS. ETA AND NGM FORECAST SPEED OF
WAVE SUGGESTS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SERN FA BY 00Z
VALID TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER POPS WILL BE REQUIRED
FURTHER NORTHWEST.

ALL THREE MODELS BRING WAVE EAST OF FA THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
LOOKS TO A GOOD BET. ON WEDNESDAY...DECENT NVA AND 15C-17C 700 MB
TEMPS WILL INHIBIT ACTIVITY. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF TAPING INTO DEEPER TRPOICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW...SAT LOOPS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF FA AND WILL KEEP FA MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOOK LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AND 300 MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY JUMP OVER WRN FA. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT 850 AND 700 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE FROM 00Z THU TO 00Z FRI...SO WILL ONLY
LOWER ONE CATAGORY.

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
951 AM MDT (1051 AM CDT) TUE JUL 15 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...SOUTHEAST OF A HILL CITY
KANSAS / GOODLAND KANSAS / CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO LINE.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA / WESKAN
KANSAS / CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
154 PM MDT (254 PM CDT) TUE JUL 15 1997

...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS HEAT COMBINED WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM NEAR 100 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO AROUND 108 ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE
CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TOMORROW...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH.

PERSONS THAT MUST BE OUTSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD LESSEN THEIR ACTIVITY...DRINK PLENTY OF
LIQUIDS...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BARKER