Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT (219 PM CDT) SAT JUL 5 1997

BIGGEST CHALLANGES TODAY INVOLVE POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FA FROM SW TO NE IS MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD MAKING THIS A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ALL THREE MAJOR 12Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL LIKELY PUSH STORMS OFF FRONT RANGE AND EAST INTO FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION CAP IS ABOUT GONE NEAR BOUNDARY
AND CU ACROSS COZ091 INTO GLD VICINTY IS EXHIBITING SOME GOOD
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING PAST HOUR.

CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NORTHEAST OF FA ATTM AND THE COMBINATION
OF WAVE IN NRN STREAM PUSHING SOUTH AND FRONT MAY MOVE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY INTO ERN ZNS THIS EVENING. THE RESULT IS HIGHER POPS SOUTH
AND EAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NWRN ZNS WHERE FRONT HAS DRIED
THINGS OUT A BIT.

AS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NGM SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND
TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN POSITION OF WAVE AND
EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION. FAVOR ETA/AVN WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE WITH
SURFACE FEATURES. THEY SHOW DELVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO
ALLOWING UPSLOPE FLOW TO SET UP AND A RETURN OF 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND ERN FA. SUNDAY NIGHTS WAVE DOES APPEAR
STRONGER THAN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SPC AND HPC HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS INVOLVED. BUT GIVEN THE FORECASTED DEW POINTS
IT SHOULDNT TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS GOING. ETA MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST ACTION SHOULD BE LATER THAN TONIGHTS
ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS NERN ZNS
THIS TIME AND WILL GO GOOD CHANCE THERE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

OVERALL...FWCS SEEM IN THE BALLPARK. MAYBE A LITTLE WARM DURING THE
DAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN IT SUGGESTS. GIVEN
THE LOWER LEVEL TEMPS FORECASTED BY THE ETA/AVN...FAN SEEMS TOO
COOL. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH HIGHS AND GO NEAR FWCS WITH
LOWS.

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-052115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT (311 PM CDT) SAT JUL 5 1997

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT)...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON...AND SOUTHERN YUMA
COUNTIES IN COLORADO. IN KANSAS THE WATCH INCLUDES...CHEYENNE...
RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES. THIS WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT).

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  PERSONS SHOULD WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

BARKER