Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT (323 PM CDT) SUN JUN 29 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERNS THIS
   PACKAGE...

THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING ALONG TROF. THESE STORMS WILL
DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE FA...AND THEN TURN SOUTHEAST ONCE THEY ENTER
WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PER LATEST PROFILER DATA.

ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR...FWC MOS TOO DRY...AS IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST TWO RUNS...WHILE FAN POPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. CONSIDERING
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...WITH CAPES IN THE 2500 TO 3100 J/KG...
LIS OF -10...300MB DIVERGENT FLOW PROGGED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WITH TROF FORECAST TO PUSH EAST...WILL FOLLOW FAN POPS FOR THE
FA. HOWEVER...MAY UP POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.

SFC TROF TO EXTEND FROM MCK AREA SOUTH BY 12Z. CONTINUING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF TROF MAY HELP KEEP SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE SECOND
PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME CLOUD COVER TO HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS UP EAST. DRYING AND
CLEARING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
LOWER 60S.

EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTH. DESPITE A VERY GOOD WARMING AT 850 MB...FLOW GOING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW FROM FORECAST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN...FOR
A SHORT TIME. THIS COOLER AIR WILL DEFINITELY MIX OUT LATER IN THE
DAY...BUT TEMPS WONT RECOVER ENOUGH OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FA TO
REACH FWC FORECAST HIGHS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO BREAK 100...WITH AROUND 100
NORTHWEST. THERE. SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE EAST.

TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST OF FA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. STRONG
WARMING AT 7H TO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH 4TH PERIOD DESPITE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. STILL...WILL REMAIN WARM OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.

GLD  064/099/063/095  300   HLC  066/098/068/100  3-0
CBK  065/100/064/096  300   MCK  065/098/066/097  3-0
TRB  065/102/063/095  300   ITR  063/098/062/095  300

TURNER

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-300500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
454 PM MDT (554 PM CDT) SUN JUN 29 1997

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT)...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
THE GOODLAND OFFICE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...

    CHEYENNE       RAWLINS        DECATUR       NORTON
    SHERMAN        THOMAS         SHERIDAN      GRAHAM
    WALLACE        LOGAN          GOVE
    GREELEY        WICHITA

A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS HAIL THE SIZE
OF DIMES OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE. PERSONS SHOULD
WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ENTWISTLE