Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Hastings, NE

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
155 PM CST SAT MAR 8 1997

...PRLBM WILL BE SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...

CURRENT SFC ANAL HAD LL MOISTURE CONTG TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH IN ADVANC
OF TROF AND DVLPG LO PRES ON FRONT RANGE. MID 40 DWPTS HAVE SNUCK INTO
XTRM SW NEB WITH MID 50S INTO SW KS. WITH PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING
S-SSW WINDS OF 30/50 KTS THRU H85 CAN ONLY ASSUME 50 F DWPTS AT H85
EVIDENT ON 12Z UAA IN NRN TX HAVE MADE THE SAME MOVE. ADAP SHOWS LIS
TO 0 IN SW NEB WITH CAP DOWN TO 2 C. IT/S THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN.

VIS SAT PIX SHOW CU DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL NEB...AND MOD/TOWG
CU IN PNHDL. AREA 88DS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO RETURNS AS OF YET AS THE
MOISTURE IS FOR THE TIME BEING VERY LIMITED IN NEB. ONE LAST NOTE ON
SAT WOULD BE WV IMAGES OF IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX PUNCHING INTO WY/CO W/
A SMALLER WAVE SPINNING AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THIS ONE THRU KS.
THIS SUPPORTS NGM/S MORE PRONOUNCED SOLN AND KEEPS LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG DYNAMICS LATER THIS EVE IN AREA.

AS NGM IS THE ONLY MDL SO FAR...AM FOLLOWING IT. GOOD THING IT APPREARS
TO HAVE A VERY NICE HANDLE ON PARAMETERS TO THIS POINT AS IT HAS
STRENGHENED TROF AND SLOWED IT AND THUS HAS ALLOW MUCH MORE LL MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTH INTO AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL DIVIDE CWA FROM NW TO SE BASED ON TIMING OF
THE TROF PASSAGE. IN NW SECTION...GENERALLY FROM ALMA TO KEARNEY TO
GRAND ISLAND TO GENOA...WILL SAY 30% CHC SHRAS/TSRAS PSBL THRU ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS 30 TO 35. TO THE SE...40 OR 50% CHC SHRA/TSRA
INTO EARLY AM HRS. SAME WINDS W/ LOWS IN MID 30S. KS W/ LIKELY POPS.

TOMR...THINGS CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN DPVA BEHIND DEEPENING TROF AS
IT MOVES INTO GT LKS. GUID S SEEM REASONABLE GENERALLY BTWN 50
AND 55 ACROSS AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS 20/30 IN AM WITH TIGHT SFC
GRADIENT DIMINISHING SOME BY AFTN.

TOMR NIGHT...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE AGAIN AS HI PRES MOVES OVERHEAD
AND DWPTS IN THE TEENS/20S TO THE NW OF US ATT MOVE IN.

WAA ON RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HI PRES AND NEXT TROF TO THE WEST WILL
BRING SOME UPPER CLDS INTO AREA AGAIN FOR P CLDY SKIES ON MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY AND WILL RANGE TEMPS FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S AGAIN IN KS.

GRI UB 035/051/024/057 4000
ODX UB 032/050/020/055 3000
LXN UB 032/053/020/060 3000
HBR UB 038/053/026/059 5100
BLT BB 040/055/029/064 6200

GURNEY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ040-046>048-061>064-073>077-083>087-090845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1145 PM CST SAT MAR 8 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM CST...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD
WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE STABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...WEATHER WATCH 99 ISSUED
EARLIER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA LINE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

JAB