Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
200 PM MST THU SEP 11 1997

COORDINATED WITH PHX ON FFA FOR SRN PART OF CWA UNTIL 5PM WHERE
FLOODING PRBLMS OCCRD EARLIER AND WERE STILL FORMING.  ALSO TALKED TO
SLC ABOUT CONCERNS FOR SVR WATCH NRN AZ...DECIDED NOT CRITICAL FOR
OUR CWA.  JET ASSOC WITH NICE UPR DIV/LWR CONV CUPLET WILL BE IN ERN
AZ BY THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO BUMP UP SOME POPS THERE TONITE AS
CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER THRU SOME OF EVENING.

LIMITED LOOK AT MODELS TODAY DUE TO BUSY MORNING AND DATA PROCESSING
PRBLMS..MOST THOROUGH LOOK AT ETA.  MDLS ALL FCST SIGNIFICANT DRYING
BEHIND S/WV TROF IN SWRLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT SFC-
BASED INSTBLTY PARAMETERS DONT DROP OFF TOO MUCH.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AZ...INCLUDING EASTERN RIM AND WHT MTNS
TONITE AND TMRW...BUT WITH LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING CAN'T RULE OUT
WESTERN PART OF CWA FOR SCT CONVECTION FRI.  HOWEVER NOT MUCH CHC OF
A TRIGGER LIKE WE HAD TDY AHEAD OF THE S/WV SO LKLY NO SVR OF FF
PRBLMS.  ETA INDICATING MOST THOROUGH DRYING OVR NW AND N-CNTRL AZ SO
WILL DROP POPS TO ISOLD THERE BOTH FRI AND SAT.  SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST MSTR IN SRN PART OF CWA.

MRF SUGGESTING CHC THAT H5 RDG WILL BUILD AGAIN BY LATE SAT AND INTO
EXTENDED PD...SO MAY NOT GET OUT OF SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON FOR A
WHILE YET.

FLG 2323  INW 3323
KEIGHTON
FLG...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SE YAV CNTY AND NW GILA CNTY TIL 5 PM MST