Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
820 PM MST MON SEP 1 1997

88D INDICATING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN YAVAPAI
AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. OTHERWISE ALL THE ACTION OCCURRING TO
THE WEST OF CWA IN SOUTHERN CA-NV. SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY ALSO NOTED
IN SOUTHERN AZ WITH SOME DEBRIS CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.  00Z ETA INITIALIZED 5H VORT MAX OVER NW AZ THIS EVENING AND
THIS PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR OFF...BUT THINKING HERE IS THAT DISTURBANCE
IS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NW.  IN EITHER CASE...THIS LEAVING CWA UNDER
SOME NVA...AND THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO ACT AS KICKER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THEREFORE...DECIDED
TO LET THE FFA GO EARLY. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FIRST PERIOD...SOME
ISOLATED STORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.  TEMPS
FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...IT APPEARS THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR I.N
THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE 5H RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE MONSOON TYPE FORECASTS GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FLG -535 INW -223
FLG...NONE