Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
224 AM MST TUE OCT 7 1997

NWR SYNOPSIS...SEE SPSFLG.

DISCUSSION...LOTS GOING ON TODAY. STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME...HEADING FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COME SUN UP SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
PICK UP NICELY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE 50KT JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THIS MORNING AND THE KFSX 88D VWP SUPPORTS THIS. WILL HOIST
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 400 PM MST. THIS IS
PROBABLY A BIT OF AN OVERKILL AS WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
BE EASIER TO DROP THE ADVISORY AS THIS HAPPENS RATHER THAN TRYING TO
TIME THE WIND DECREASE WITH SEVERAL ADVISORIES HAVING DIFFERENT
EXPIRATION TIMES.

BIG DROP IN HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER THROUGH 15Z...THEN GET KICKED QUICKLY THROUGH THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE DECENT MORNING WARM-
UP...THEN SEE TEMPS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NEXT PROBLEM IS POPS. RECENT WV IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP OVER THE CWA. MODELS INDICATE BEST INFLUX
OF RH TO BE IN EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY/THIS EVENING. EXPECT DECENT UVV
WITH THE FRONT AND IF LOW LEVEL RH INCREASES IN EASTERN AREAS AS
PROGGED...GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO ACT WITH MOISTURE.
THE PLAN IS TO GO WITH SCT POPS TODAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. ONLY
WESTERN SECTIONS TO HAVE POPS LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IS UP IN
ZONES 4/6 PER WRAP AROUND H7 RH. LOW ELEVATION AREAS WILL WORD AS
"CHANCE" TO EXPRESS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TAPER THINGS OFF FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING.

NEXT PROBLEM IS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EVENING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ZONES 4/6 DUE TO WRAP AROUND RH AND -3C H7
TEMPS. OTHERWISE IN ZONES 11/15>18 WILL MENTION LATE EVENING SNOW
FLURRIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S WEATHER.
GOOD SUBSIDENCE INDICATED ON ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SOME WARMING
ALOFT. WILL GO PC ALL AREAS.

FLG 43- INW 32-

PASSETTI

FLG...WIND ADVISORY ZONES 004>018 THROUGH 400 PM MST.

AZZ004>018-071630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
342 AM MST TUE OCT 7 1997

...COLDER TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND
BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING THE PAST WEEK.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BEING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...BY LATE EVENING SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...GRAND
CANYON COUNTRY...MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

ANY OUTDOOR LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED AND MOTORISTS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE PULLING TRAILERS OR DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CROSS WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST. PEOPLE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PREPARED dFOR
THE COLDER WEATHER.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION OR CABLE
TV.

PASSETTI