Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Issued

Aug 3, 1997, 4:08 PM MDT (22:08 UTC)

Expired

Aug 3, 1997, 6:05 PM MDT

In force

117 min

Issued by

NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area

Whole counties

County Navajo County, AZ

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
TTAA00 KFLG 032210
FFWFLG
AZC017-040005-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST SUN AUG 3 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF AZ HAS ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 505 PM MST
FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA

   ...NORTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY
 
AT 300 PM MST...FLAGSTAFF DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN SECOND MESA AND DILKON IN
NORTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
INCHES HAD FALLEN OVER THE JADITO AND POLACCA WASHES.

PEOPLE NEAR THE JADITO AND POLACCA WASHES SHOULD MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOOD WATERS THREATEN. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS IN YOUR VEHICLE.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 3, 3:09 PM MDT, 59 minutes earlier.

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
205 PM MST SUN AUG 03 1997

BUSY KEEPING UP WITH THE SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA FIRST PERIOD. FROM THE MODEL
DATA IT APPEARS THAT THE 12Z ETA DID NOT DO A GOOD JOB IN PLACING
VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER BAJA IN ITS INITIALIZATION. THE 12Z NGM ONLY
DID SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE 12Z AVN WAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EITHER. THEREFORE...DO NOT REALLY TRUST MODELS FOR THE
LONGER TERM. FROM SAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THE VORT MAX
WILL MAKE A BEE-LINE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT A RELATIVELY
SLOW BEE-LINE.

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA. WITH PRECIP ALREADY RECEIVED THERE...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME A REAL CONCERN.

OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT FIRST PERIOD POPS
RELATIVELY HIGH AS TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK TO
THE NORTH. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD HAVE MAINLY BROAD-BRUSHED POPS OVER
THE CWA...WITH FAVORED AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THESE AREAS.  FOR TEMPS...NGM MOS
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TEMPS...EVEN CAPTURING THE
HIGHER MINS EXPECTED TO NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. ONLY
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJXUSTMENTS TO THE MOS NUMBERS.
FLG 573  INW 553
FLG...NONE

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1997Every flash flood warning in 1997

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.