Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
255 PM CDT WED OCT 8 1997

FCST PROBLEM THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTH OF EVENING TSRA AND LATE
PERIOD WINDS. SFC FRONT CREEPING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WV
LOOP SHOWING WAVE MOVING NE THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM. AS WAVE CONT
TO MOVE NE TONIGHT SHOULD INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA AND RA TONIGHT FIRST WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
WITH WARP AROUND COMMA HEAD PCPN. GOOD MOIST CONV...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND QG FORCING SHIFTS E OVR REGION TONIGHT. FEEL CAT GOOD FOR
PCPN TONIGHT. AREA RADARS SHOWING SCTATTERED TSRA ALONG FRONT FROM INL
BORDER INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON
BREAKS SOME CONVECTION ALSO STARTING OVR SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. AS
FRONT AND WAVE CONT TO MOVE NE FEEL ABOVE MENTIONED PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD AND CONTINUE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH TDS IN LOW TO
MID 60S. PWATS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES SO SOME LCL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EVEN WITH SPEED OF CELLS. MARG INSTABILITY (ADAP
-4) AND ETA CAPE VALUES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. STILL WITH POCKETS OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SOME PTNS OF SE ND AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN MAY SEE
STRONGEST STORMS APPROACHING SVR LIMITS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER CELLS
SHOULD BE WEAKER ELSEWHERE.
ALSO FROM SPC DISC IS STRONGER CELLS TO TAKE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THIS MAY
ROB SOME INFLOW HOLDING INTENSITY DOWN.
SFC FRONT ENTERS RRV AROUND 06Z. CONCERN THEN IS STRONG NW FLOW. VERY
TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WITH >50KT FLOW AT H8. DVL AREA MAY SEE STRONGEST
WINDS AND RRV MAY NOT SEE STRONGEST WINDS TILL CLOSE TO MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS W ND APPEARED MARG FOR WIND ADVISORY CRIT SO MAYBE CAN HOLD OFF
ON ADVANCING ADVISORY EAST. STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT...MOS SEEMED A LITTLE
WARM CONSIDERING H8 TEMPS DROP BLO ZERO OVR E ND BY 12Z. EVEN WITH
STRONG WINDS TEMPS SHOULD FALL BLO MOS READINGS. WARMEST MINS WILL BE
EASTERN PTNS OF CWFA WITH DELAYED CAA.

FOR DVL...CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH OCNL SHOWERS AND EVENING TSRA. LOW
AROUND 40. NW WIND INC TO 20 TO 35 MPH.
GFK...CLDY WITH OCNL SHRA AND EVENING TSRA. LOW MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 15
TO 25 MPH BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 MPH AFT MID.
FAR...CLDY WITH OCNLY SHRA AND EVENING TSRA. LOW MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 15
TO 25 MPH BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 MPH AFT MID.
ROX...TVF...DTL...FFM...CLDY AND WINDY WITH OCLY SHOWERS AND EVENING
TSRA. LOW MID 40S. WIND SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NW AND INC TO 20 TO
30 MPH AFT MID.
BDE/BJE...CLDY AND BREEZY WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
LOW AROUND 50. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NW LATE.
FFM...CLDY AND WINDY WITH ONCL SHRA AND EVENING TSRA. LOW UPPER 40S.b
WIND SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NW AND INCH TO 15 TO 25 MPH AFT MID.
VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-082315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT WED OCT 8 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY...

AT 3 PM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PUSHING
THESE STORMS NORTHWARD AT 40 TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.

THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
PERSONS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THESE STORMS.
VOELKER