Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
150 PM CDT WED JUN 25 1997

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHCS TNGT. SFC FEATURES BECOMING MORE
DEFINED THIS AFTN. WK CDFNT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH FM NORTH OF
COU TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MKC. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALG FNT IN
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS PER MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...CURRENT LI
AROUND -10 WITH CAPES BTWN 3000-4000 J/KG. XPCT TRW TO CONTINUE IN
SRN ZONES UNTIL WK FNT CLEARS SRN ZONES BY LATE THIS EVE.

SCT RW IN NCNTRL MO ASSCD WITH WK SHRTWV INDICATED BY PROFILERS. WK
HI PRES SLOWLY BUILDING INTO NW MO BEHIND SHRTWV WITH A SLOW DROP
IN LLVL MOIST. SEE LTL FOCUS FOR RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT TNGT IN NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT INSTABILITY EVE RW/TRW.
ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT IS SHRTWV MVG EAST ACR NRN PLAINS. AREA OF RW/TRW
PERSISTS ACR WRN/CNTRL NEB MVG SLOWLY EAST. QG FORCING WITH SHRTWV
AS PER MODELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ZONES. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN MO TNGT IN WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.

WK FNT TO DSPT ALG MO/ARK BDR ON THURS WITH MDLS INDICATING WK
SHRTWVS EJECTING E/NE ACR AREA THRU FRI.  MOIST LIMITED zUNTIL
FRI...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF LO POPS ON FRI AS TRACK
AND TIMING OF WAVES IS SUSPECT.

FWC GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE EXCEPT APPEAR A LTL TOO WARM FOR IRK
THURS NGT.

.EAX...NONE

DB

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT WED JUN 25 1997

...SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...

FORECAST:  THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION:  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WAS ALSO A DYING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI...CAUSED BY A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.  HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT.  DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS.

WELVAERT

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT WED JUN 25 1997

...SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...

FORECAST:  THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION:  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WAS ALSO A DYING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI...CAUSED BY A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.  HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT.  DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS.

WELVAERT