Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
233 PM CST MON MAR 24 1997

LOOKS LIKE FIRST POTENTIAL SVR WX EVENT OF SEASON SHAPING UP OVR ERN
KS/WRN MO. SFC ANLYS AT 19Z SHWS WRM FNT XTND FM NR FNB TO JUST S OF
IRK AND CD FNT FM ERN SD/ERN NE BACK TO DDC. EAX 88-D AND PROFILER SHW
50 KT + LO LVL JET PUSHING NWRD INTO CWA. AFT MODIFYING CRTN AM SNDG TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED LOW LVL JET...0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES DROPPED TO
MID 80S. REAL THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY NOW APPRS TO BE INVOF OF
DVLPG SFC LO AND BASED ON CURRENT PRES ANLYS THAT WOULD BE ALG TOP STJ
3OI CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STG MSTR ADVT/CNVGNC
THINK THAT LARGE HAIL STILL DECENT POSSIBILITY OVR GOOD PORTION OF CWA.
VIS LOOP SHWS DVLPG CU IN AREA OF LOWERING LI'S SO THINKING ATTM IS FOR
TSTMS TO BEGIN FIRING AHD OF CD FNT IN 2200-0000 UTC TIME PRD. WILL NOT
MAKE SGFNT CHNGS TO FCT FOR TNT KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN TACT AND WILL
TAILOR WORDING TWDS POTENTIALLY SVR WX. ANTICIPATE WW FM SPC DURING
NEXT CPL OF HRS SO WILL HOLD WRK ZNS TILL LAST MINUTE.

MODELS ALL OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLNS THIS LATEST RUN. WV LOOP SHWS JET
DIGGING SWRD FM GRT BASIN AREA INTO FOUR CORNERS AND WITH BLDG HGTS
UPSTREAM OVER BRITTISH COLUMBIA PREFER AVN SOLN WITH CLOSED LO DVLPG
OVR NRN AZ. BELIEVE THAT NGM SHEARS UPPR LO TO NE TOO FAST AND ETA
CLOSING SW LO OFF TOO FAR S. THEREFORE WILL NOT BUY INTO FAST CLRG FOR
TUE AND WILL LEAVE CLDS AND CRNT POPS IN TACT. WILL GO WITH CLRG FOR
TUE NITE AS FCST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GRADIENT MVS EWRD. PREFER
SLIGHTLY COOLER FAN GUIDANCE FOR TUE THRU WED TIME PRD.

MCI WU 040/047 033/060 043 99+30

BODNER

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
112 PM CST MON MAR 24 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

FORECAST:  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYTIME AFTER 3 PM SO EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD STAY IN TOUCH WITH CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGESSES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM WEST OF A
BETHANY...RICHMOND AND WARRENSBURG. TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA AFTER 7 PM. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SLOW DOWN IN MOVEMENT FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT. THE FLOOD THREAT IS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUTLER...WARRENSBURG...MARSHALL AND MOBERLY.

DISCUSSION:  SUNNY INTERVALS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE RAPIDY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FUEL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

BODNER