Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

UPR LOW SPINNING ALNG KS/NE BRDR WITH SFC LOW VCNTY 3OI.  CDFNT
TRAILING SWD TO WC/SW MO.  UPR SYS TO MOVE ACRS AREA TONITE WITH
CDFNT EXITING AREA EARLY EVE.  WRAP ARND PCPN THE CONCERN TONITE
WITH TEMPS THE PROBLEM FOR REMAINDER OF FCST.

DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED IN BEHIND CDFNT WITH SUN BREAKING OUT.  THIS
ACTING TO DESTABLIZE AMS SOMEWHAT FOR CU SCTD SHRA ACTIVITY. TEMPS
HAVE REALLY SHOT UP WITH EARLY MAY SUN.  BUT...STILL DONT EXPECT THIS
TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD THIS EVE DESPITE VRY LOW LI/HIGH TT PARAMETERS.
STILL...SHOULD BE DECENT WRAP ARND PCPN TONITE MOST AREAS AND WILL
HANG ON TO POPS.  COLD POOL ALFT WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LOW TOP CONVECTION CANT BE RULED OUT.  WILL MAKE DESISION
AT LAST MINUTE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN ZONES.  OTHER CONCERN
IS POTENTIAL THAT SOME -SN COULD BE MIXED IN OVR NRN ZONES.  STNG
CAA EVIDENT AND LLVL THICKNESS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS IS PSBL.  COORD
DSM/OMA AND AGREE THAT CLDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC TEMP DROP...AND
AS SUCH WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THE S WORD OUT.  AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY
(I THINK).  STILL...WITH COLD TEMPS/THKNS THINK PLENTY OF SMALL HAIL
OR EVEN SLEET WILL BE PSBL WITH ANY TSRA TONITE...ESP ACRS NW MO.
WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO EVE SHIFT.

CAA CONTS IN FORCE DURG DAY SAT AND SOME LLVL RH HANGING ARND...
ESP EARLY IN DAY.  THUS THINK THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF WRAP ARND
SC ARND...AND EVEN CU DVLPT BEHIND.  THIS WILL KEEP DAY QUITE CHILLY
FOR EARLY MAY...AND SETS STAGE FOR EVEN CHILLYER NIGHT.  SFC RIDGE
PROGGD PASS OVRHEAD...AND WITH LGT WNDS/CLR SKIES THERE IS GREAT SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THINK MDLS BANKING ON CLIMO TOO MUCH AND WILL
GO BLO GUID.  GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS.  FROST A DEFINATE
POSSIBILITY AS WELL AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TOO.
CANT BELIEVE ALL OF THIS IN MAY

FINALLY SOME RELIEF FOR SUNDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
AND WAA BEGINS.  BEST SW FLOW DOESNT QUITE GET HERE AND THINK FWC
GUID A BIT OPTIMISTIC.  WILL SHADE TO THE LWR FAN.

MCI BB 040/056 038/068 050 995-0

WELVAERT

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

FORECAST:  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM BETHANY
TO KANSAS CITY AT 1 PM...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  AREAS EAST OF
A LINE FROM PRINCETON TO RICHMOND TO PAOLA ARE IN THE THREAT AREA...
WHILE POINTS WEST OF THAT LINE SHOULD BE OUT OF IT.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

BY TONIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD.  DUE TO THE COOLER AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
REGION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

DISCUSSION:  AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO THE ILLINOIS BY LATE
TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST TIP OF MISSOURI WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND INTO ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ARKANSAS
WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER.
THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

WELVAERT