Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 1997

TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS FCST: WHAT TO DO WITH BDRY ACRS AREA CRNTLY
GENERATING CONVECTION...AND WHAT WILL TX SYS DO FOR AREA MONDAY?

SFC BDRY VCNTY COU-MKC-CNK LINE AT 07Z WITH CONVECTION TRYING TO GO
ALNG APPARANT H8 BDRY FM MOBERLY TO MARYVILLE.  ADAP AND SFC ANAL
SHOWING MOISTR CONVERGENCE AT SFC WITH LI'S STILL -5 TO -6.  EVE TOP
SOUNDING PRETTY UNSTABLE AND MODIFIED FOR CRNT CONDS STILL RESULTS
IN QUITE A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY.  WHAT IS LACKING IS GOOD
TRIGGER AS ARE CAUGHT IN MIDST OF RIDGING.  WK SHEARED S/WV TROF
WORKING ACRS AREA PER AWIPS 6.7 WAVE IMAGERY AND THIS LIKELY HELPING
CRNT ACTIVITY ACRS STATE.  LATEST SFC OBS AND LOOK OUT THE DOOR SHOWS
SOME CU FORMING...AND WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...THINK BEST CHANCE OF ANY PCPN TDY WILL BE OVR NE ZONES PER
CRNT ACTION AND AS THE FNT MOVES SLOWLY NE TDY AS SHOWN BY ALL MDLS.
SO WILL HAVE TO RE-INTRO POPS TO AT LEAST NE ZONE GRP.

NEXT CONCERN IS MONDAY AS TX SYS SHEARS IN RESPONSE TO L/WV CRASHING
THE NW COAST.  IT WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY UP ACRS KS...ALNG WITH
ADD'L RH AND CLDS.  ATTM...ALL 3 MDLS KEEP BULK OF RH...SUPPORT...AND
PCPN TO THE WEST OF AREA AND WILL CONT WITH THIS TREND.  WILL INCR THE
CLD WORDING FOR NOW AND LET DAY CREW RE-EVALUATE.  ALSO TWEAKED THE
EXTENDED FCST IN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLDS AND PCPN CHANCES AS
TX SYS SHEARS OUT ACRS AREA THRU MID-WK.

WITH AREA BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR TDY...LIKE THE WAY GUID TEMPS HAVE
COME BACK UP.  WITH HOW FAST TEMPS WARMED YSTDY...AND WITH SIMILAR
CONDS TDY WILL GO ALONG OR MAYBE EVEN A SNIFF ABV SOME AREAS.  IF ETA
800MB TEMPS PAN OUT...SOME MID 90S QUITE POSSIBLE OVR NW MO.

.EAX...NONE.

WELVAERT

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 1997

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

FORECAST:  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...AND THE FACT THAT STORMS MAY MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA...LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MOBERLY WHERE UP TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THERE.  OTHER SLOW-MOVING STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI MAY ALSO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS.

IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY
TO CHILLICOTHE TO BOONVILLE.

SPOTTER GROUPS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WATER
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION:  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IS ACTING TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS CREATING THE NECESSARY
LIFT TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING.  WEAK WINDS ALOFT CAUSING THE STORMS TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY...OR EVEN NEARLY STATIONARY.  STORMS ARE ALSO
REGENERATING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN MOVING OVER AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OUT OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...TAKING THE RAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH IT.  IN THE MEANTIME...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...&AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WELVAERT

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 1997

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

FORECAST:  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...AND THE FACT THAT STORMS MAY MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA...LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MOBERLY WHERE UP TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THERE.  OTHER SLOW-MOVING STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI MAY ALSO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS.

IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY
TO CHILLICOTHE TO BOONVILLE.

SPOTTER GROUPS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WATER
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION:  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IS ACTING TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS CREATING THE NECESSARY
LIFT TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING.  WEAK WINDS ALOFT CAUSING THE STORMS TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY...OR EVEN NEARLY STATIONARY.  STORMS ARE ALSO
REGENERATING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN MOVING OVER AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OUT OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...TAKING THE RAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH IT.  IN THE MEANTIME...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WELVAERT