Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

AS PER PREVIOUS AFD...HVY RAFL THREAT BIGGEST CONCERN IN SHORT TERM
WITH SVR WX A CONCERN AS WELL.  QSTNRY FRONT MORE OR LESS STRADDLING
I-70 ATTM WITH SFC LOW INVOF DDC.  VERY UNSTABLE AMS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY
AND SLGTLY TO MDTLY SO TO THE NORTH.  MODIFIED 12Z TOP SNDG USING
M70S/M60S FOR SFC PARCEL AND GOT NEAR 2000 CAPE WITH LITTLE NEG AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LVL WINDS ARE REALLY WEAK...SO SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WEAK AS WELL.  WBZ PRETTY HIGH TOO SO WILL NOT MENTION SVR.

TUFF CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH FF WATCH.  REASONS FOR:  BOUNDARY
NEARBY...SLOWING SHORT WAVE TROF IN KS...TROPICAL AMS IN
PLACE...PORTIONS OF CWA WITH WET GROUND, ETC.  REASONS AGAINST:  FF
GUIDANCE FAIRLY HIGH...850 WINDS FCST TO WEAKEN AND VEER THROUGHOUT
NIGHT THEREBY WEAKENING OUR INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR...CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER OK SHOULD CUT OFF INFLOW AS WELL...BREAK IN TSRA ACTIVITY
PSBL AFTER FIRST WAVE ROTATES THRU.  ATTM...FEEL FF THREAT WONT BE
WIDESPREAD ENUF TO WARRANT WATCH ALTHO FIGURE A FF WARNING OR TWO WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TNGT.  WILL OPT TO HIT HARD IN ZONES FOR NOW AND ALLOW
EVE CREW TO REASSESS NEED FOR WATCH.

LOOKS LIKE MAYBE A BREAK MON AM BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU
LARGER TROF FOR LATE MON.  WILL CONTINUE CURRENT CHC POPS AND THEN GO
LIKELY FOR MON NIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN.  ETA SHOWS
SFC LOW TRACKING ALG KS/OK BORDER WITH BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SAG
SLOWLY SWD.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW TNGTS
ACTIVITY SHD GIVE BOUNDARY A SHOVE SWD.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH 850 WINDS
BACKING AROUND TO SSW IN SE KS AND ERLY WINDS IN OUR FA...CONVERGENCE
SHD BE PRETTY GOOD.  WITH GOOD UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS...WITH +RA A THREAT AGAIN.

PROXIMITY OF UPR LOW ON TUE WILL FORCE ME TO CARRY CHC POPS FOR TUE AS
WELL.

HIGHS THRU PD SHD REMAIN AOB NORM...ESP TUE BUT WILL LIKELY STICK
CLOSER TO WARMER FWC GIVEN PSBLTY OF SEEING SOME BREAKS MON.  HIGH
DWPTS WILL KEEP MINS ABV FAN GUIDANCE TOO...CLOSER TO FWC AGAIN.

.EAX...NONE.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

FORECAST:  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OUTLOOK
AREA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

DISCUSSION:  A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WILL SEND IMPULSES OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARD THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG AN
EAST-WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN TO THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DECREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  ONE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY IS WEAK WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

FORECAST:  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OUTLOOK
AREA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

DISCUSSION:  A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WILL SEND IMPULSES OF ENERGY EASTWARD TOWARD THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG AN
EAST-WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN TO THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DECREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  ONE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY IS WEAK WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

JM