Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 PM CDT WED JUL 16 1997

PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION FIRED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND WAS AIDED BY A VORT TAIL THAT
HAS SINCE MOVED EAST. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AIR AT THE SFC IS QUITE JUICY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND IN THE LOWER 70S IN
NORTHWEST WI.

MOST OF CONVECTION AS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BUT ETA SHOWS CONFLUENT
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO H7 FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS ACTING TO TIGHTEN TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IS
RESULTING IN FROTOGENESIS. FEEL NORTHWEST CWA...INL...CDD...WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS NW WI AND FM BRD TO HINCKLEY. A H5 VORT MAX WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AIDING IN CONVECTION.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN S6HOULD ALSO HAVE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
AROUND FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO INCREASE THEIR CHANCES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FWC GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD EXCEPT I
THINK INL AND ARROWHEAD WILL BE AROUND 60.

MELDE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT WED JUL 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0823 AM    5 S GORDON                WI   1.50 INCH HAIL
07/16/97   DOUGLAS

1115 AM    GLIDDEN                   WI   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/16/97   ASHLAND

1215 PM    20 NE PARK FALLS          WI   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/16/97   IRON

EJS