Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT THU MAY 29 1997

...CHALLENGE REMAINS THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EAST CWA...AND EFFECT OF
PRECIP/CLOUDS ON HIGHS FRIDAY...

WHEW  BEEN A BUSY DAY SO FAR AND NOW NEW SEVERE CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT OVER WESTERN CWA AT 20Z.  LOOKING AT 18Z SFC MAP...SURFACE LOW
IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WITH FRONTOGENETICAL WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL KS.  THIS WARM FRONT...WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER IT...AND EXITING 30H JET STREAK...CAUSING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN CWA ATTM.  RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH ESTIMATING OVER TWO INCHES
VCNTY LARNED.  COORD WITH ICT AND WILL ISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN EIGHT (8) COUNTIES.

FARTHER WEST...FINALLY GOT A LITTLE HEATING THROUGH CIRRUS (AND A
LITTLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS) IN EXTREME SE COLO AND SW KS.  SVR
CONVECTION GOING AT THIS TIME.  GETTING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW
IN THESE AREAS TOO WITH COOL TROF/WEAK VORT MAX IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
COLORADO.  ABUNDANT/DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO
HELP PRODUCE POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS OVER FFA AREA LATER THIS
EVENING.  WENT WITH NGM FOR PACKAGE THOUGH DOUBT ETA DIFFERED TOO
MUCH.  WITH AWIPS UPGRADES GOING ON...DIDNT HAVE TOO MUCH TIME TO
LOOK AT ETA/NGM.  REAL GOOD THETA-E RIDGE INTO AREA 18Z INTO 06Z
TONIGHT.  WITH CWA RIGHT ON NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN UP WITH CONVECTION GOING ON THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE CURRENT WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH CWA
TONIGHT...BRINGING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  HAVE UNDERCUT FWC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH WET GROUND AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.DDC...FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES 46-65-66-79>81-89-90.

DDC 052/067 050/077 055 840
GCK 050/066 049/076 053 840
EHA 052/066 050/076 052 840
LBL 052/067 050/077 054 840
HYS 049/067 051/078 053 730
P28 058/071 056/079 058 840

SEARCY

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT THU MAY 29 1997

SYNOPSIS: SEVERAL WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE
LOW IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO...EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

AT HIGHER LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.  THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND PROFILE MAY ALSO CAUSE THESE STORMS TO ROTATE...
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT
AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE
SECONDARY THREATS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTERS MAY NEEDED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEARCY