Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT THU MAY 29 1997

FCST PROBLEM INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...WHAT TO DO WITH
THE VERY HIGH GUID POPS...AND WIL STORMS BE SEVERE?

WAS WITHOUT SAT DATA UNTIL 0645Z SO DO NOT HAVE A GOOD TREND ON CLOUDS.
OF THE LIMITED WATER VAPOR LOOPS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE S/WV
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  NGM/ETA/AVN ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING S/WV
OUT ALTHOUGH NGM APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH.  COULD PICK UP ON THE S/WV ON
ANALYSIS.  IF THE S/WV WOULD COME OUT THIS EVENING...WOULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SVR CONVECTION.  AS IT STANDS...CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN A LITTLE SOONER THIS AFTERNOON.  WL NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW SVR SEEMS LIKELY.  DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IT.

MCS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THE CONVECTION TODAY...ENDING UP IN SE
KS/EASTERN OK TONIGHT.  RETURN FLOW/OUTFLOW FROM EXITING MCS SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF JUICY RAIN COOLED AIR POISED TO FLOW UPSLOPE.  WL NOT
MENTION FOG IN THE ZFP BUT AT LEAST LIGHT FOG CERTAINTLY LOOKS PSBL.

TEMPS TO BE TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND HOW
EARLY.  WL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE WITH GUID.

DDC 073/053 071/056 075 551
GCK 074/054 072/055 077 531
EHA 077/054 075/054 078 532
LBL 075/053 074/053 077 532
HYS 070/052 070/054 074 531
P28 076/056 074/056 078 671

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT THU MAY 29 1997

SYNOPSIS: SEVERAL WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE
LOW IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO...EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

AT HIGHER LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.  THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND PROFILE MAY ALSO CAUSE THESE STORMS TO ROTATE...
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT
AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE
SECONDARY THREATS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTERS MAY NEEDED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEARCY