Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT MON SEP 15 1997

...PRECIP/TEMPS AGAIN ARE THE KEY VARIABLE THIS FORECAST CYCLE...

RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE/PROFILERS/00Z UPR ANALYSIS DIAGNOSE THE
CONVECTION OCCURING IN NW KS AHEAD OF DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW INTERSECTING
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND MID 60 DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONVECTION REST OF TONIGHT AS COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLE
SOUTH SOUTH EAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF CWA. MESO-ETA MISSES THO
ETA AND NGM VERIFY WELL WITH NGM KEEPING MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION GOING
INTO NW OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. EXPECT LEFTOVER CONVECTION EARLY MORNING
IN SE CWA SO WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY THERE SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
OF CONVECTION ON 88D. REST OF CWA SHOULD HAVE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND MODERATE SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. GO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC AND FAN BASED ON YESTERDAYS TEMPS AND
ESPECIALLY IN WEST AS DRIER THERE. DOWNWARD MOTION WILL GIVE SUNNY SKIES
AHEAD NEXT VORT LOBE WHICH WILL KICK OFF GOOD CONVECTION OVER ROCKY
MOUNTAINS LATE TOMORROW WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE
ANAL AS BEING EVEN STRONGER THAN MODELS AND NEAR LAS VEGAS ATTM.

TOMORROW NIGHT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW...LEESIDE TROUGH FOR SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION OVER COLORADO TO MOVE EAST INTO CWA WITH MUCH ACTIVITY
LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT SO GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AND BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS NEAR FWC WITH DEWPOINTS SUPPORT LOWS NEAR FWC
GUIDANCE AND SHOULD HAVE MODERATE NOCTURNAL WINDS.

LATER PERIODS AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT KEEP LOW POPS WITH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR MOST CWA BOTH PERIODS
WITH BEST CHANCE NORTHERN 2/3 TUESDAY AND SOUTHEAST 1/3 TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND THUS
THICKNESS WILL LOWER TEMPS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ARCOSS AREA FROM MONDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVERUNNING BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT
WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT FOR NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE TO ASCERTAIN.

EXTENDED PERIODS SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL WON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHWEST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME TROPICAL SOUTHWEST MONSOON
MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM GULF AND LEE SIDE
TROUGH KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND HI
TEMPS 85 TO 95 AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 092/065 089/058 085 -32
GCK 094/062 088/057 084 -32
EHA 096/060 088/056 083 -32
LBL 095/061 089/057 084 -32
HYS 093/062 089/056 084 -32
P28 094/070 092/068 087 -32

NICHOLS