Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 1997

ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY IS FRAUGHT WITH THE USUAL
SUMMERTIME UNCERTAINTIES WHICH ACCOMPANY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IS ANTICIPATING
SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WHICH WAS
NORTHEAST OF PRATT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WITH CONSEQUENT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS ALL ARE DEPENDENT UPON THE
POSITION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY
IS THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH OOZES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

ANALYSIS OF 12Z DATA REVEALED WEAKNESS IN THE H5 RIDGE WITH SEPARATE
CENTERS OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MINOR HEIGHT FALLS
WERE INDICATED ON THE 24 HOUR CHANGE ANALYSIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH
RISES OVER THE MIDWEST. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT DOUBT THAT IT WILL BE AS DRAMATIC AS
DEPICTED ON THE RAFS. ALREADY AT 18Z...SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA
SUGGESTED THAT THE RAFS WAS TOO FAST IN KICKING THE SEMI-TROPICAL SYSTEM
NORTHWARD. THE AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER AND SEEM MORE
REASONABLE. THE ETA SOLUTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AFTER 36
HOURS...WHEN IT INTENSIFIES A MINOR TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE WEAKENING THE PERSISTENT
SEMI-TROPICAL SYSTEM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MODEL MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT THE GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL CONTINUE NEAR
THE CURRENT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

LIKELY CATEGORY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION FIRING AFTER 05Z
AND PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PREMATURE AT THIS TIME SINCE THE
GROUND OVER MOST OF THE DODGE CITY AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY STILL IS
RELATIVELY DRY. WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES TO HANDLE THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH LESSER POPS ELSEWHERE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO HAVE A LESS DRAMATIC EFFECT ON SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WILL TRIM
POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE EASTERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH LINE ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS OUTFLOW FROM THE EXPECTED NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WITH
BOTH BOUNDARIES WANDERING AROUND SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHT IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...AND ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEHIND THE WAVE LIKELY WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE STATE...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION
WILL INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MOS TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE AND WERE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY.
ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM MOS WAS ADJUSTING POPS
DOWNWARD WEST OF THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT.

.DDC...NONE

DDC 066/087 066/089 065 4323
GCK 065/088 065/090 064 2233
EHA 064/092 063/092 063 2232
LBL 066/091 065/090 066 2223
HYS 066/085 066/088 063 7634
P28 070/089 071/090 069 6422

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