Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT THU MAY 1 1997

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CHANCE FOR TSTMS TONIGHT...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR LAMAR COLORADO
WITH GOOD STRONG WEST WINDS BEHIND IT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GIVE IT
THE MOMEMENTUM TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING
ALONG THE WEAK DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AS IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR. PER COORDIATION WITH SPC...AGREE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AS
THE AREA INTERSECTS WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. WILL
COVER WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE.
OTHERWISE AS FAR AS TONIGHT GOES...WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS AND KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS MENTIONED. GRADIENT LOOSENS UP
SOME...BUT WITH CONVECTION AROUND SEE NO REASON TO LOWER WINDS TOO
MUCH.

FOR THE OUTER PERIODS...PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED AN ETA/AVN SOLUTION SINCE
THEY WERE BOTH IN LINE PRETTY WELL WITH TODAYS SITUATION. THE NGM WAS
DOING ITS TYPICAL JOB OF TAKING THE LOW TOO FAR NORTH AND HAVE FOR THE
MOST PART DISCARDED IT. FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH WESTERN KANSAS GETTING
INTO THE WRAP-AROUND AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY MORNING
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT. FEEL PRETTY CERTAIN THAT A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN AND WILL HIT IT FOR NOW WITH STRONG
WORDING IN THE ZONES. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY WITH
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP-AROUND. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WHOLE AREA BASED ON THIS. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW FAN GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION AND CLEAR OUT
THE CLOUDS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. HAVE AGAIN STUCK FARILY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 045/058 037/069 043 740
GCK 044/059 035/071 042 740
EHA 045/061 036/072 043 630
LBL 046/060 036/070 043 730
HYS 044/056 037/067 041 640
P28 050/064 043/072 046 740

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1055 AM CDT THU MAY 1 1997

SYNOPSIS:  DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY.

SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PARKIN