Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 1997

CENTER OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR GCK AND CONTINUES TO
SHEAR APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FA WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WHERE BREAKS IN SC HAVE OPENED.  SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH TO REQUIRE
AN EVENING PERIOD IN ZONES FOR SHRA IN EASTERN 2/3 CWA.  GOOD
SUBSIDENCE WILL LATER TONIGHT AS WHATS LEFT OF LOW GETS PULLED INTO THE
WESTERLIES.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER KANSAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE LATER PERIODS.

PREFERED AN ETA/AVN SOLUTION AGAIN AS NGM CONTINUES WITH ITS WARM AND
DRY BIAS.  ON TUESDAY...ETA WAS ONLY MODEL TO KEY IN ON VORT SPINNING
NEAR BAJA AREA AND PHASE IT WITH MAIN JET ENERGY IN NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH THE ETA PROBABLY IS OVERDOING THIS WAVE...IT SUGGESTS AN UPPER
LEVEL TRIGGER MAY REALLY GET THINGS GOING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM...APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND RATHER POTENT NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER WESTERN KANSAS EXISTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.  THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP IN EASTERN
COLORADO NEAR KS BORDER TUE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
IN EHA AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON TUE AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.  SEVERAL FACTORS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE FA.
ETA GRIDDS PROGGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RICH AIR MAXIMIZED
FROM DDC-HYS EASTWARD BY EVENING.  H8 DEWPOINTS ABOVE 15 C POINT TO THE
THREAT OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY THROUGH FA.   ETA ALSO HAS A 45 KT H8 JET FEEDING
INTO FRONT BY MIDNIGHT.  H7 TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIRMASS SLIDES INTO FA WITH SOME CLEARING OF SKIES
BY AFTERNOON.  UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WHICH MAY WORK INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATE.

.DDC...NONE

DDC UB 066/086 061/081 058 09335
GCK UB 066/087 060/080 057 09335
EHA UB 063/093 059/082 057 09134
LBL UB 066/089 062/080 059 09335
HYS UB 067/087 059/079 056 0933B5
P28 UB 070/092 066/085 063 09535

STOUT