Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS FCST IS WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE.
THEN...HOW CLOUDS WILL INFLUENCE TEMPS PDS 2 AND 3.

19Z SFC CHART CHART SHOWS SURFACE LOW ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER GCK WITH
WEAK DRY LINE TRAILING SW INTO ERN NM.  60+ DEW PTS COVER ERN 2/3RDS OF
CWA.  20Z ADAP SHOWS LI/S OF -6 ACRS ALL CWA AND NO CAP AS OF
20Z...THUS TSTMS COULD FIRE ANY TIME NOW.  FOR NOW...THINK FIRST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG BOUNDRY MARKED BY LINE OF CU FROM WEST OF HYS
TO WEST OF GCK.  THEN...THIS LN OF STORMS SHOULD MARCH EASTWARD AS
STORMS MOVE NEWD.  MUCH RICHER SFC MOISTURE IN E PART OF CWA...WITH 19Z
DEW PTS IN 67-68 DEG RANGE.  UPR FLOW VEERS(SLIGHTLY) TO WEST AND
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE ALOFT.  THIS ALL
POINTS TO PSBL SVR STORMS THIS EVENING IN S AND CNTRL PARTS OF CWA...WL
MENTION PSBL SVR THERE BUT WITH CHC POPS.
MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SFC FRNT MARCHING ACROS
CWA FROM NW TNGT...THEN FROM W OKLA TO NE MO BY 16/12Z...THEN HIGH
PRESS PUSHES IT FARTHER S BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MON NT
AND TUES.  WILL GO WITH LOWER CHC POPS IN ALL BUT NRN COUNTIES MON NT
AND TUES.

FOR TEMPS...WL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TNGT BUT LOWER BY A CATG MON/S
HIGHS WITH CLOUDS TO SURPRESS SOLAR HEATING.  THEN BACK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR PDS 3 AND 4.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 060/078 058/081 0.60 444
GCK 059/078 060/079 059 444
EHA 059/075 060/080 060 344
LBL 063/080 061/084 060 344
HYS 058/083 061/083 059 243
P28 066/084 064/086 065 453

BURKE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SINK SOUHTEASTWARD TODAY AND
BE CENTRERED FROM NEAR ELKHART TO HAYS BY THIS EVENING.  A
MOIST...WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.  AS THE SUN WARMS THE
SURFACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY
DESTABILIZE.  A DRY-LINE WILL FORM AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS EARLY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.   A STIFF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SHEAR
TO ANY STORMS THAT GET TRIGGERED.  SUPERCELL AND TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BASICALLY EAST OF LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
FARTHER TO THE EAST...SEVERE STROMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.  IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTRERNOON...BUT NOT IN THE
SEVERE CATAGORY.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE AREAS WITH A SEVERE THREAT.

BURKE