Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 1997

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...

...PIT...LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF NEEDING A SLGT CHC GROUP
FOR TODAY. SINCE 30% HAS BEEN INCLUDED...WUDN'T DROP IT NOW.

...PHL...CURRENT ZONES REFER TO THUNDER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
ANYTHING I THINK BEST CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE SERN SECTIONS LATER
TODAY AS MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE COME TOGETHER.
SAME AS ABOVE...WUD BE A GREAT DAY TO MENTION A SLGT CHC OF A FEW
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS.

...DISCUSSION...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHERE PRIVATE METEOROLOGISTS
HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OVER OUR LOCKED IN LOW POP WORDING. SHUD SEE A
CLASSIC CASE OF A "FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS" WHICH
WE HAVE TO BE RESIGNED TO PAINT-BRUSHING WITH A 30% POP.

AT 12Z SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY STALLED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ERI AND DET.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER LOWER SUSQ...DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. REMNANTS OF DYING CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT CAN BE
SEEN MOVING TWD LONG IS AND SE NY STATE. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY
MUCH FULL SUNSHINE BEATING DOWN ON THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING CONVECTION IN THE EAST AND THE WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST.

OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SMALL STRIPE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY
SURGE MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION ASSOC WITH THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. FRONT SEEMS TO BE BEHAVING AS PLANNED...STAYING WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED.

BELIEVE WE HAVE TO LOOK EAST TODAY FOR BEST CHC OF CONVECTION. AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST...LOCAL HGHTS WILL BE RISING WHICH WILL
ASSURE SFC FRONT NORTH STAYS WEAK. BUT UPPER TROFFING AND STRONG
SFC HEATING WILL HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROF FEATURE OVER
ERN PA. AS LOBE OF HIGH PV AIR SLIDES ACROSS...IT SHUD HELP ENHANCE
ANY LIFT THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP FROM THE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY COUPLET. WUD WORD AFTERNOON ZONES MID/LOWER SUSQ WITH
LOW CHC POPS. ELSEWHERE BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE HIT AND
MISS.

TWD MID WEEK ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND SPREADS WHAT MAY BE
THE FIRST SIG WIDESPREAD RAINS TO HAPPEN IN A WHILE INTO THE
REGION. AVN TAKES UPPER FLOW WHICH IS FAIRLY ZONAL NOW AND BUCKLES
IT CONSIDERABLY. AS RIDGE IS MADE TO BUILD INTO CTRL CANADA...
RESULT IS DOWNSTREAM INTENSIFICATION OF SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT
OF THE ROCKIES. WHERE THE FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SETS UP WILL BE ALL
IMPORTANT AS TO WHO GETS HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME AVN MAKES BEST
RAINS SURGE NORTH OF US...BEFORE WE SEE MORE RAIN DEVELOP UNDER
DEEPENING UPPER TROF. ECMWF ALSO DRAWS A PICTURE LIKE THIS...IN
FACT IS DEEPER WITH UPPER LOW 2AND SUGGESTS A VERY COOL RAIN UNDER
A CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW WHICH WUD SUPPORT A LOW SOMEWHERE EAST OF
HERE. WHATEVER HAPPENS HOPE TO SEE SOME RAIN...THINGS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY

LA CORTE