Tornado Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 1997

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
MOISTURE ACROSS S AND SCNTRL TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 LOW AND VORT
AXIS WHICH WL REMAIN QSTNRY THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE.

KCRP-88D REF DATA INDICATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS OVR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  AREAL COVERAGE IS FCST TO
INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND TONIGHT AS
SFC MOISTURE CNVGNC INCREASES WITH THE MAXIMUM PCPN POTENTIAL ALONG
THE H8 40-50 KT JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTLINE WHERE
THERMODYNAMICS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION NWD INTO SCNTRL TX.

12Z ETA MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STG THETA-E WARMING ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA ALONG THE H8 JET MAX WHERE PWAT VALUES POOL TO NEAR
2.2 INCHES.  WL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA AS FFG
REMAINS LOW (AVG 1-INCH FOR 1HR RAFL).  HVY RAFL POTENTIAL WL EXIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS MID-UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS
ABOVE THE FAVORABLE LLVL DYNAMICS.  ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SVR IS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WL EMPHASIZE THE THREAT FOR HVY RAFL IN THE
UPCOMING FCST PACKAGE.

AN UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND A HEAVY RAFL OUTLOOK WIBIS.

MARINE:  SLY FLOW 20 KTS .. SEAS 5-6 FEET.  SCA IN EFFECT.  SMW WIBIS
FROM BAFFIN BAY-CC BAY AS VEL DATA SHOWING 50KT WIND AT 2K FT.

WRK ZONES BLO...
-----------------------
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A % CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAFL IS POSSIBLE.  SE WIND AT 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY THIS EVENING
THEN DECRG TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER TONIGHT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED WINDY WITH A % CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA.  HEAVY RAFL IS POSSIBLE.  S-SE WIND INCRG TO 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTY.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A % CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
.MONDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH A % CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA.
-----------------------

THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...

CRP EE 079/088 077/089 075 5754
NGP    079/087 078/088 077
VCT EE 077/086 075/087 075 6854
LRD EE 076/090 076/096 075 4644

BML...76

TXZ229-230-231-232-233-234-239-240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-
220030-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 1997

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALONG A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO REFUGIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI
TO KINGSVILLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN SOUTH TEXAS
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CONTINUED INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM GOLIAD
TO NORTH OF VICTORIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.  OTHER
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS COMBINED
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TXZ229-230-231-232-233-234-239-240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-
220030-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 1997

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALONG A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO REFUGIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI
TO KINGSVILLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN SOUTH TEXAS
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CONTINUED INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM GOLIAD
TO NORTH OF VICTORIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.  OTHER
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS COMBINED
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.