Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 AM CST SUN MAR 30 1997

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
CAA LOCATED ALONG A DFW-ACT-P07 AXIS ATTM WITH MDT-STG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND FRONT IN THE MAX CONCENTRATION OF CAA WHERE DWPTS HAVE SHARPLY
DECREASED INTO THE 30S.  EXPECT APCHG FRNT TO ADVANCE INTO THE FA BY
LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTN.  0645-0715Z IR SAT ANIMATION DEPICTS
CNVCTN/COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONT.

KCRP-88D VWP AND WIND DATA FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING SUPPORTS ONLY PATCHY
FOG/DENSE FOG AS COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PAST
24-48 HRS AS BNDRY LYR WIND HAS INCREASED AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A STRATUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH AS
PWAT EXISTS NEAR 1-INCH WITH AN AVG LIFTED INDEX OF -10C AND AN
INHIBITING CAP OF 3.7C.  STEEP MID-LEVEL DRYING ABV H9 WL BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AS FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NEARLY NON-EXISTANT
WITH THE APCHG FRONT AS THERMO-FORCING REMAINS STG AND WL BE THE
MECHANISM FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND CNVCTV INITIATION WITH THE
GREATEST RAFL/TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS SCNTRL TX-E AND SE TX.

00Z ETA MODEL INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z FRNTL POSITION AND
LOCATION OF MAX CAA.  12Z FCST OUTLINES FRNT ALONG A POE-SAT-EAGLE
PASS LINE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE 15-18Z TIME
FRAME AS FRNT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.  CAA PATTERN WEAKENS
THIS AFTN AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS FRNT PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND
FEEL THAT ONLY MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA WL BE REACHED ATTM.

ETA TIME CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT ADVANCING SHIELD OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AS 80-90% RH VALUES EXIST FROM THE SFC TO H5 BY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY AS WK SRN STREAM S/W EJECTS TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS FROM MEXICO.

ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES LATE MON AND INTO TUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES EWD.  CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER-LOW PUSHES SWD ACROSS SRN CA ALLOWING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM TOWARD S TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

HOPEFULLY WATER-PROOF DYE WAS USED ON THE SEVERAL EASTER EGGS
EXPECTED TO BE RETRIEVED BY FUTURE FCSTRS EARLY THIS MORNING!  :)

WRK ZONES BLO...
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.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  TURNING COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHEAST WIND
AT 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  NORTH WIND AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40| PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  NORTHEAST AND
EAST WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...

CRP EC 076/057 065/058 073 3342
VCT EC 075/054 065/055 072 3342
LRD EC 076/055 065/056 073 3342

BML...76