Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 AM CDT THU OCT 9 1997

WET OCTOBER PATTERN HAS TAKEN ROOT ACROSS THE REGION AND SHD HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE FA AND WITH THIS IN MIND WILL ISSUE A FFW THROUGH TODAY.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LIVE OAK HAVE SEEN UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS.  THE FOUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED ATTM AS THEY WILL BE WEST OF THE MAIN ACTION.

KCRP 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS RW/TRW OFFSHORE FROM PSX TO SE OF
BRO.  OTHERS WERE LOCATED INLAND FROM THREE RIVERS TO VCT TO RKP.
MOVMT HAS BEEN NW.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL RW/TRW TO FORM LATER THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST.  BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON ADAP
PRODUCTS IS ALONG THE MID TX COAST.  WITH PWAT VALUES NR 2.40 (FROM
00Z SOUNDING) AND FCST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2.20 THRU 48 HRS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.  X-SECT DATA SHOWED ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA.  MODELS
HAVE AN INVERTED TROF FEATURE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD.  WNDS FCST TO BECOME NE-ELY ACROSS THE FA.  SFC TROF
ALONG THE COAST WILL SET UP A BOUNDARY WHICH SHD HELP FOCUS PCPN.
THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF ECHOES.  ADD TO THE
EQUATION PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM PAULINE AND IT EQUALS MORE PCPN.

WILL USE A BLEND OF NGM/AVN/MRF FOR TEMPS WITH MOS FINALLY COMING
AROUND ON PCPN.  MOS ALSO DROPS POPS QUICKLY ON FRI AND FEEL THIS IS
OFF THE MARK.  THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF PCPN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE ON
COLUMBUS DAY AND THIS MAY FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE: SCA WILL NEED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR CWF AS WNDS REMAIN UP AND
SEAS WERE 7FT AT LAST CHECK.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT WEBB...DUVAL...LASALLE
AND MCMULLEN.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLDY WITH A % CHC OF RW/TRW.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE CRP/VCT.  E WND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLDY WITH A % CHC OF RW/TRW.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.  E WND NR 10 MPH.

FRI...MOSTLY CLDY WITH A % CHC OF RW/TRW.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.  E WND 10 TO 15 MPH.

CRP  TT 087/074 085/075 085 6474
NGP     086/076 084/075 084
ALI  TT 089/073 088/072 086 6373
LRD  ET 089/074 087/072 086 4353
VCT  TT 083/071 082/071 083 7474

MSL..73

TXZ231>234-241>247-512-091800-

COASTAL BEND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
655 AM CDT THU OCT 9 1997

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BEING BE EAST OF
A THREE RIVERS TO GEORGE WEST TO ALICE TO PREMONT LINE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AS WELL AS CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN SOUTH TEXAS TODAY SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.  DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER THAT COVERS A ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
PERSONS ALONG OR NEAR CREEKS AND LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LENZ

TXZ231>234-241>247-512-091800-

COASTAL BEND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
655 AM CDT THU OCT 9 1997

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BEING BE EAST OF
A THREE RIVERS TO GEORGE WEST TO ALICE TO PREMONT LINE.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AS WELL AS CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN SOUTH TEXAS TODAY SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.  DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER THAT COVERS A ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
PERSONS ALONG OR NEAR CREEKS AND LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LENZ