Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
941 AM CDT THU JUN 5 1997

FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS AGAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND VORTICITY MAX IS A
LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATE.
WEAK SURFACE AT 13Z CENTERED OVER SOUTH MINN. WITH AXIS OF HIGHEST
DEW POINTS FROM NORTHERN WISC. INTO SOUTHWEST MINN....IN AREA OF
GOOD SUN THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES ALREADY CLIMBING AND EVEN SOME
SIGNS OF CONVECTION ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST MINN. SO WOULD EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA TO FORM AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. 00Z MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
OVERDONE ON 850 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES COMPARED TO NEW 12Z ANALYSIS
SO INTERESTED TO SEE HOW NEW MODELS HANDLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
12Z 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT KINL CERTAINLY LOOKS BOGUS...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO 12Z GOES-8 SOUNDER DATA.

IN ANY EVENT...WILL NEED TO UPDATE CENTRAL WISC. ZONES AS OLD
SrHRA ACTIVITY MOVES OUT. MAY ALSO HAVE TO UPDATE SOUTHEAST MINN.
ZONES WITH WEAK DBZ RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF KRST.
94O (DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK) LOOKS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH ZONES
MAY BE OVER WORDED SOMEWHAT.

SHEA

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-052100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
430 AM CDT THU JUN 5 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A WABASHA
MINNESOTA AND NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE...AND WEST AND ALONG A LINE
FROM NEILLSVILLE TO DUBUQUE IOWA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA OUT OF CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THESE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS.
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

NELSON

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-052300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 5 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
EXTRA LIFT TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SHEA

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-052300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 5 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
EXTRA LIFT TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SHEA

IAZ008-018-MNZ094-051815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT THU JUN 5 1997

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MINNESOTA-
IOWA BORDER...

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA HAVE DROPPED
PEA SIZE HAIL BETWEEN 1130 AM AND NOON. OTHER STORMS JUST
WEST OF THIS AREA HAVE A HISTORY OR PRODUCING LARGER SIZED
HAIL.

AS STORMS DEVELOP IN YOUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...REMAIN ALERT
FOR THREATENING SKIES. LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS.

TUNE TO LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

SHEA