Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 1997

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD AREA OF ACYC FLOW ACRS LWR
MI...BUT WITH WRM FNTL ASSCD CYC FLOW ACRS LK SUPERIOR AND ERN UPR MI.
INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR MOST LIKELY HAVING AN EFFECT ON PUSHING WRM
FNT S INTO UPR MI GIVEN THE COOL N-S COMPONENT TO THE WIND. MAIN FCST
QUESTIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN CENTER ON PROBABILITY/AREAL EXTENT OF TSTMS
AND SVR WX THREAT.

NGM/ETA CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH UPR FEATURES...THO NGM ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS A BIT TOO FAST WITH FNTL MOVEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN IS LACK UPR DIVRGNCE/SFC CONVRGNCE COUPLING ACRS NRN
LWR OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS VORT MAX ACRS WI LATER THIS EVE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO BROAD SCALE UPR RIDGE...AT MOST CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ERN UPR TO GET THE BRUNT OF THIS ENERGY...
THUS BETTER UPR DIVERGENCE/LWR CONVERGENCE COUPLING. JUST WEAK VORT
LOBING WORKING INTO NRN LWR AFT MIDNIGHT/BY DAYBREAK...WITH NEGLIGABLE
SFC CONVERGENCE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN BAROTROPIC NATURE OF ATMS ACRS
LWR MI...WITH THERMAL/THCK RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MORNING. SFC
CONVERGENCE HWVR MAY GET A BOOST WITH OUTFLOW BNDRYS DUE TO THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE N AND W OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER COORD
WITH DTX...WOULD THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD HAVING AT LEAST SCT POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS ERN UPR AND NW LWR IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. SVR CHCS THO UNLIKELY BY 06Z WITH
THE WARMING/MOISTENING PROFILE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MODIFED KAPX SOUNDING FOR 06Z INDICATES CAPES ARND 1500
J/KG...WITH HEAVY RAIN/HIGH K INDICIES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STRONG 700-500 MB DRYING AND CAA WORKS INTO REGION FROM W BY 12Z BEHIND
INITIAL SFC FNT AND AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ASSCD WITH MAIN UPR LVL
VORT. HWVR...THESE DESTABLTZTN FACTORS WILL BE OFFSET BY SFC DRYING AND
SUFFICIENT UPR DIVERGNCE/LWR CONVERGENCE STILL LACKING. THUS WOULD NOT
BE SUPRISED IF SVR WX IS NOT SEEN ACRS THE AREA BEFORE WE TRANSFORM
INTO COOLER...DRIER REGIME BY LATE WED/INTO THU. WOULD XPC AT LEAST SCT
ACTIVITY ACRS SE PTNS OF NRN LWR WITH STILL HIGH DWPTS IVOF INITIAL@
FNT. HWVR...WITH LOW LVL DRYING INCREASING W/ TIME...MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL FOCUS ALONG 1000/850 THTE RIDGES AND MSTR FLUX
CONVERGENCE.

HURLEY

MIZ021-026-027-MIZ032-033-250230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

AT 925 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM JUST WEST OF TRAVERSE CITY TO 10 MILES WEST OF CADILLAC.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH... AND WILL
EXTEND FROM NEAR BELLAIRE TO KALKASKA TO LAKE CITY BY 1000 PM.

WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
WHEN THEY APPROACH YOUR AREA.  IN ADDITION...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

MIZ021-026-027-MIZ032-033-250230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

AT 925 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM JUST WEST OF TRAVERSE CITY TO 10 MILES WEST OF CADILLAC.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH... AND WILL
EXTEND FROM NEAR BELLAIRE TO KALKASKA TO LAKE CITY BY 1000 PM.

WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
WHEN THEY APPROACH YOUR AREA.  IN ADDITION...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.