Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT WED MAY 7 1997

AS OF 20Z...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NOTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY ON THE MOVE BUT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
CONFINED MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO. THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR INITIATING STORMS OVER OUR
CWA. IN ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...THE FRONT AND LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TODAY.
ADIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES TODAY.  LOOKING AT THE AMA 12Z SOUNDING...CAP WAS
AROUND 5C...CAPE AROUND 560 J/KG AND GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT 700MB.  SOUNDING MODIFIED TO A TEMP 80 AND DEW
POINT OF 60 PRODUCES CAPE VALUES ARND 2800 J/KG...NO CAP OVER THE
EAST...A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 8 TO 10 AND SR HELICITY 175 M/S.

PROBLEM OF TODAY IS THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND TEMPERATURES FOR
PERIODS 2 THROUGH 4. NGM AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NGM AND ETA ARE INDICATING A VORT MAX COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY
12Z THURSDAY. WE WILL TRIM DOWN THE POPS AND THE WORDING OF
SEVERE OVER THE NORTHWEST IN THE FIRST PERIOD. A PIECE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING AND THE
MAIN HIGH OF 1025 TO 1030 MB WILL BE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...ALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT
WITH SOLUTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CWA AND UPPER AIR FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OVER AREA FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST.  UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST. MRF IS CARVING OUT A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FOR LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO THINTK ABOUT.

DHT 43/60 37/63 40 332
AMA 48/65 40/67 44 543

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ZEIGLER

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-072200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 7 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND A TROUGH LINE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.  THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BUT SHOULD STALL IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OR
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DRIVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS MECHANISM FOR STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST
OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO CLAUDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRY LINE MAY SERVE AS A SECONDARY LOCUS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

COPLEY

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-072200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 7 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND A TROUGH LINE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.  THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BUT SHOULD STALL IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OR
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DRIVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS MECHANISM FOR STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST
OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO CLAUDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRY LINE MAY SERVE AS A SECONDARY LOCUS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

COPLEY