Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Amarillo, TX

FPUS3 KAMA 062004
AFDAMA

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 1997

TSTMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MTNS OVER ERN NM...WHERE CAP HAS
WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE PNHDLS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WBZ REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PNHDLS WITH AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER DEVELOPING
LATE AS THE STORMS PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AND ENCOUNTER A
STRONG LOW LVL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY WL BE A RECOVERY DAY AS WE EAGERLY AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT SAGGING S INTO THE PNHDLS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MODELS FCSTG EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDS ACRS THE PNHDLS WITH
LI/S FROM -6 TO -10 AND CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  ETA THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS INSTABILITY...BUT MAY BE SUFFERING SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  IN ANY INSTANCE...BELIEVE SPC IS ON THE RIGHT
TRACK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK AND WL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH
ANY ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PNHDLS...
SHWRS/TSTMS WL DEVELOP JUST TO ITS N AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING CAA TAKE OVER SO GOOD CHC OF RAIN EXISTS WED NIGHT. THU
AND THU NIGHT OFFER COOLER CONDS WITH A CONTD SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF
SHWRS AS UPSLOPE FLOW TAKES AND EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES PASS OVER THE
REGION. FAVOR FAN TEMPS AND POPS ALL PDS. JDC

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CDFNT WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. UKMET AND MRF INDICATING A SFC HIGH OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS MOVG
SE WITH TIME. UPSLOPE ELY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MEAN 1000-500MB LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT OVER OUR CWA.  MRF
HAS HINTED ON GOOD POPS...AROUND 50 PERCENT...FRI FOR THE LAST THREE
RUNS DUE TO THIS POST FRONTAL MOISTURE ALOFT. SFC INSTABILITIES ARE
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FRI...HOWEVER A POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMPT THE WORDING FOR SHOWERS. SATURDAY BRINGS A LITTLE BREAK...SO WE
WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE. MRF AND ECMWF INDICATES A SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SOLUTION FOR THE LAST TWO RUNS. FZ

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COLTON/ZEIGLER

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-070600-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALL THESE
INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS IN EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
ATMOSHPERIC WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-070600-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALL THESE
INGREDIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS IN EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
ATMOSHPERIC WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADEH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-070100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 1 AM CDT.
ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

DEAF SMITH COUNTY...WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 256...HAS BEEN PLACED INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

OLDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY IN TORNADO WATCH 255...HAS BEEN
PLACED INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

SP