Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT MON JUN 23 1997

AMA WITH 3500 PLUS CAPE...NEG 10 TO NEG 12 LI...DEW POINTS IN THE
60S AND A 15 TEMP AT 700. BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW CU WEST AND A
LITTLE BETTER STUFF DISTANT NW THE OTHER SIDE OF CAO.

QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IF AND HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT COMES
DOWN. COULD END UP WITH OUTFLOW FROM KS CONVECTION OR IT COULD HELP
DRIVE THE FRONT ON DOWN. MY BEST GUESS SUPPORTED BY 99F AD ETA WILL
PUT A BOUNDARY...OUTFLOW OR COLD FRONT...FROM DHT TO GAG BY 12Z...
IT MAY DRIFT A LITTLE SOUTH OR JUST STALL OUT.  THIS BOUNDRY AND
BETTER DEVELOPED DRYLINE WILL HELP WITH WED PM 5OOMB WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NW CWA. SO I ACTUALLY LIKE PRECIP CHANCES BETTER WED
EVEVING.

WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND FOR NORTH ZONES TONIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS IN
THE SOUTH. REST OF PACKAGE SEEMS OK AND WILL KEEP CLIMO TREND INTO
EXTENDED.

   AMA...64/84 60/82 123
    DHT...60/85 58/84 324

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

DJC

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-250500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A SUPPRESSANT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...COMBINED WITH
STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL WANT TO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

COLTON

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-250500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A SUPPRESSANT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...COMBINED WITH
STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL WANT TO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

COLTON