Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 PM EDT WED JUL 16 1997

MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT APPEARS DEWPOINTS MAKING UP
FOR THE LOSS OF A FEW DEGREES AS FAR AS THE COMFORT DEPARTMENT IS
CONCERNED. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED JUST WEST OF THE AKQ RED LINE BETWEEN DAN AND
SHD...AND THEY BE A CREEPING EASTWARD DUMPING COPIOUS RAINFALL. AKQ 88D
ESTIMATES HAVE 1 HOUR TOTALS NEAR 3 INCHES ACROSS AMHERST COUNTY.
ACCORDING TO 500 TEMPS VIL O THE DAY AROUND 61. PULSE SEVERE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK FLASH-FLOODING WILL BE MAJOR FEATURE WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND CEMENT-LIKE GROUND.

THINGS LIKELY TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS TROF EASES
ALONG. HOWEVER AS IT GETS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IT SHOULD
STALL...ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. ETA NEVER REALLY GIVES US A WINDSHIFT
THRU THE 48 HR PERIOD. WITH PATTERN AS STAGNANT AS IT IS...THIS SEEMS
LOGICAL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WILL SPIN VORT LOBE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN BAGGY TROF AND MOVES VERY
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVE TO
BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THINK SMALL POPS FOR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR THURSDAY.

CWF...NO FLAGS NEEDED.

RIC...71/94/72/95  3212
ORF...75/92/75/92  3312
SBY...72/92/71/93  3312
ECG...74/91/74/92  4322

VALONE

VAZ048>049-060>070-079>081-162100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 PM EDT WED JUL 16 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...

AT 130 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISA...
FLUVANNA AND PRINCE EDWARD COUNTIES.  THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING EAST AT ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH.  SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  AT THEIR PRESENT SPEED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT
MOVE INTO THE RICHMOND/TRI-CITIES AND EMPORIA AREAS UNTIL AFTER
4 PM.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN BAND...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER
AS THEY APPROACH.  RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE
PREPARED TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  IF THE SKY
SUDDENLY TURNS THREATENING OR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING BECOME EVIDENT
...SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE BAD WEATHER PASSES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION OR CABLE
MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SAMMLER

VAZ048>049-060>070-079>081-162100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 PM EDT WED JUL 16 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...

AT 130 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISA...
FLUVANNA AND PRINCE EDWARD COUNTIES.  THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING EAST AT ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH.  SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  AT THEIR PRESENT SPEED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT
MOVE INTO THE RICHMOND/TRI-CITIES AND EMPORIA AREAS UNTIL AFTER
4 PM.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN BAND...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER
AS THEY APPROACH.  RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE
PREPARED TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  IF THE SKY
SUDDENLY TURNS THREATENING OR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING BECOME EVIDENT
...SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE BAD WEATHER PASSES.

LISTEN TO NOAA LWEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION OR CABLE
MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SAMMLER