Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 31 1996

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDING AT TUCSON SHOWED FURTHER DRYING
FROM YESTERDAY. THE SOUNDING STILL CONTAINS SOME INSTABILITY
PRIMARILY TO FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. NORTHWESTERLIES
WILL KICK IN BY 11 AM AND AS A RESULT FURTHER DRYING IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP AND
WITH A FEW STRONG MICROBURST TYPE STORMS.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BACK DOOR STYLE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS
SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEST AND TREND TOWARD A PATTERN TYPE 2. HOWEVER...MODELS KEEP THE
CENTER OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND A TYPE 2 PATTERN
NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE MAY BE IN FOR
A DRY SPELL ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA.  HOPEFULLY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOUGLAS HELPS TO FORM A LARGE MCS NEAR
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IN MEXICO ENHANCING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW A SURGE IS POSSIBLE
BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BUT...A LOT OF THINGS MUST COME
TOGETHER...HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  ON ANOTHER NOTE...DID ANYONE
NOTICE THE HEAT INDEX IN GUAYMAS YESTERDAY? IT WENT UP TO 133
DEGREES...MAKES HOUSTON SOUND COOL. TUS 000. MCCOLLUM