Tornado Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CST THU MAR 14 1996

MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT.  THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE
AND A LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW.  SAT PICS SHOW DRY SLOT HAS
MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
ITS NOSE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED TO THE WEST IN THE AREA OF A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM
SEEN IN MESONET.  PER SPC'S TORNADO WATCH MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE TIME BEING.  THIS ENDING MAY NOT BE LONG AS THE COLD FRONT
WASHES OUT TOMORROW OR BECOMES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE AVN SUGGESTS.  ANYWAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE KICKED OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN A
STREAMWISE FASHION.  ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS IS SUGGESTED BY STRONG VV'S
CROSSING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS BY THE AVN.
THE AVN HAS ANOTHER SUCH SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER ON
SATURDAY.  THUS...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS.  HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW AS THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE MAY BE A PROBLEM.

TUL 048/067 050/064 042 5033
FSM 053/073 047/064 045 3033
MLC 053/073 050/065 045x 3033
BVO 045/063 049/060 040 5033
FYV 051/067 045/060 040 5033
IDB 058/075 057/070 048 2033
BYV 051/067 043/060 038 5033

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ABBAS

OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-151200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST THU MAR 14 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AT 100 PM...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THE LOW WILL BRING A DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL BRING DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND COLDER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO PRODUCE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY MID AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY FROM
MID MARCH TO MID JUNE AND AS NEEDED AT OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR.
DAILY ISSUANCES OF THIS OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN THIS YEAR ON MONDAY
MARCH 18TH.