Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CST WED APR 3 1996

SAT PICS AND KINX 88-D SHOW EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
RESULTS HAVE BEEN ACCAS AND SOME RW-/VIRGA.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WILL NOT NEED TO ADD POPS TO FORECAST SINCE THEY ARE
ALREADY INCLUDED IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  AT 20Z THE
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM TOP-ICT-GAG-AMA.  BY 06Z THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A JLN-TUL-OKC LINE AND BY 12Z IT
IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA.

AS WITNESSED BY THE ACCAS AND RW-/VIRGA WITH THE SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND SHALLOW. RETURN
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.  FEEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL GIVE WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN.  ALSO...TIME SECTIONS
FROM FYV...FSM AND MLC SHOWED DEEP AND FAIRLY STRONG LIFT AROUND
06Z OR ABOUT THE TIME OF OR SHORTLY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...WILL SKEW POPS USING THAT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AN
OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY.  WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE...LIKE THE AVN SOLUTION OF 90 PERCENT MEAN RH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER NORTH TEXAS.  THUS...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURE WISE GENERALLY FOLLOWED FWC'S GIVE OR TAKE A FEW
DEGREES.

TUL 045/060 037/055 035 3000
FSM 050/065 040/055 038 6002
MLC 050/065 040/055 038 6002
BVzO 040/057 035/050 033 3000
FYV 048/060 037/055 035 4000
IDB 055/068 045/058 040 6304
BYV 048/060 037/055 033 4000

.TUL...
OK...NONE
AR...NONE

ABBAS