Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 AM CST THU OCT 31 1996

LATEST SFC AND UA ANALYSES SHOW SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING EVENT IS
ESTABLISHED. SFC DWPTS OVR CNTRL TX OF 70F+ AND 850 DWPT OF 13C AT
FWD SHOW THE KIND OF MSTR THAT IS AVAILABLE FOR RIDING OVR TOP OF
SFC AIRMASS. WND PROFILERS SHOW THAT SRLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVR
FA BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FEET AGL. BEST INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY 12Z
UA ANALYSES WAS STILL LAGGING SOUTH OF SFC BNDRY OVR NRN TX...BUT
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL CONT TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOS ALOFT. 88-D IS ALREADY SHOWING NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVR SW/S-
CNTRL OK THAT WL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF FA THIS AFTN. WL GO AHEAD
AND RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR ALL BUT NRN TIER OF ZNS
THIS AFTN. HVY RAINFALL OVR SE OK/W-CNTRL AR IS OF SOME CONCERN DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF RA/TSRA BAND...BUT RAINFALL RATES AND 88-D
PRECIP ESTIMATES DO NOT WARRANT A FFA ATTM.

QUICK LOOK AT 31/12Z ETA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUN...SO
LATER PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
22

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>076-010600-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU OCT 31 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTCENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OKMULGEE TO MUSKOGEE
TO FORT SMITH LINE.

AT 1130 AM...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALREADY HAVE A HISTORY OF
BEING SEVERE AND HAVE PRODUCED UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL LATE
THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LIFTS
INTO THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS...HELPING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY
FROM MID MARCH TO MID JUNE AND AS NEEDED AT OTHER TIMES OF THE
YEAR.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>076-010600-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU OCT 31 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTCENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OKMULGEE TO MUSKOGEE
TO FORT SMITH LINE.

AT 1130 AM...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALREADY HAVE A HISTORY OF
BEING SEVERE AND HAVE PRODUCED UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL LATE
THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LIFTS
INTO THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS...HELPING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY
FROM MID $MARCH TO MID JUNE AND AS NEEDED AT OTHER TIMES OF THE
YEAR.