Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ENID TO LAWTON. PROGRESS HAS
BEEN SLOW BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER UPPER PLAINS...
THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL BE ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.  SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TILL 9PM AND TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE FA IN
KS.  EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
END AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SO WENT 40-60 POPS AREAWIDE
AND WORDED TO REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIP.

IN THE LONGER TERM...ALL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36
HOURS WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.  THEN THE NGM/AVN DEVELOP A LOW
IN W KS WHILE THE ETA IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE.  IN ANY CASE...
WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EXPECT IT TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY SO WILL REINTRODUCE POPS FOR WED.
BELIEVE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS BUT WILL ALSO RECEIVE MORE OF
THE COLD AIR...SO WORDED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER APPROPRIATELY.

                                 '33'

-----PRELIM NUMBERS-----
TUL 061/074 061/074 6113
FSM 065/077 064/078 4214
MLC 064/077 065/076 5214
BVO 058/072 0260/073 6113
FYV 058/075 056/074 5113
IDB 065/077 066/077 5315
BYV 057/074 055/075 6113

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT WERE
LOCATED ACROSS KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT EARLIER FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT CREATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS APPROACHING THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS WAS HELPING THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE DESPITE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THESE CLOUDS WERE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON HEATING.

AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...A CAP WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY FROM
MID MARCH TO MID JUNE AND AS NEEDED AT OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
215 PM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    TULSA                     OK
09/23/96   TULSA                          TEST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0609 PM    FAIRFAX                   OK   .75 INCH HAIL
09/23/96   OSAGE