Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Tulsa, OK

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT MON JUL 29 1996

WIND PROFILERS SHOW S/W MOVING OVR ERN KS/NRN OK TWRD MO/AR THIS
AFTN.  THIS PLUS UPR LVL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND OUTFLW BNDRYS PRODCG
SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS FROM NCTRL OK TO NCTRL AR.  LATEST SFC ANALYS AND
ADAP SHOW CDFNT XTNDG FROM XTRM SE NBRSKA TO OK PNDL WITH PREFNTL
TROF AHD OF IT.  CRNT ACTVTY ON 88D WL SPRD ESE ACRS NE OK/NW AR
THRU THIS EVNG AS S/W PASSES BY.  OTHER SCTD TSTMS MAY DVLP ALNG
CDFNT FROM CTRL KS TO NW OK IN UNSTBL AMS WITH FNTL LIFT DURG NXT
SVRL HRS. SUCH ACTVTY MAY BE LIMITED BEHIND S/W...BUT CUD SPRD SEWD
TO NRN ZNS.  IF STGR LLJ DVLPS THAN MDLS SHOW OVR OK...THEN CUD SEE
SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER AFFECT NRN ZNS DURG EVNG/OVRNGT.  WL
GO WITH 30 TO 50 POPS MOST ZNS...HIEST POPS NE ZNS AHD OF S/W TROF
THRU ERLY EVNG...WILL WORD AS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS IN ZNS.  OTHR MCS
DVLPMNT LTR THIS EVNG/TNGT...IF ANY...WUD PROB AFFECT ERN CO AND
OK/TX PNDLS...STAYG WELL W OF FCST AREA.

PREFER NGM TRACK AND ETA STRENGTH OF ROCKYS S/W WHICH WILL SLIDE SE
TWRD SW KS/WRN OK TMRW.  PREFER NGM LOOK OF SFC FTRS...WITH CDFNT
SLIDING SLWLY SE OVR NE OK/SW MO TMRW MRNG...THEN GRAD SWD OVR
ECTRL OK/NW AR TMRW AFTN/EVNG...PROB STALLING OVR SE OK LATE TMRW
IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG S/W.  AS S/W INTERACTS WITH FNTL BNDRY LT
TMRW AFTN/EVNG...SHUD SEE SCTD TO NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS DVLP VCNTY OF
FNTL BNDRY OVR SRN HALF OF OK/NRN TX...WITH LIFT FROM S/W AND UPR
DIFFLUENT FLOW HELPG ORGANIZE MCS WHICH WL TRACK TO S OF FCST AREA
TMRW NGT.  WL GO 30 OR 40 POPS ACRS FCST AREA TMRW WITH CDFNT
MOVG OVR AREA...AND 30 OR 40 POPS ZN 77/20 POPS ELSWHR TMRW NGT
XCPT PROB DRY XTRM NE OK/NW AR ZNS.

MDLS HINT AT ANOTHR S/W ROUNDING TOP OF RDG AND HEADING SE TWRD
CTRL/SRN PLAINS WED.  UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MOISTR WL BE AVAILABLE N
AND NW OF FCST AREA FOR TSTM DVLPMNT.  MDL GRID DATA SUGGEST DRIER
LLVL AIR WILL WORK SWD OVR NBRSKA/KS/IA/MO...WITH LLVL THETA-E RDG
SETTING UP FROM ECTRL CO TO TX PNDL.  FOLLOWING THINKING THAT ANY
MCS DVLPMNT WUD BE IN THIS THETA-E RDG...WL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR
NRN ZNS...SML POPS SRN ZNS VCNTY OF STNRY FNT WHICH CUD PROD A FEW
AFTN TSTMS.

TEMP FCST DFCLT...ESP HI TEMPS WHICH WL DEPEND HVLY ON AMT OF CLOUD
COVER.  MOS SEEMS REASONABLE...WILL GO NR MOS GUID AND HOPE I AM
CLOSE.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TUL 72/87 67/88 4321   BVO 71/87 65/88 4321   FYV 70/85 65/88 5411
MLC 73/87 69/89 4423   IDB 70/89 69/88 2344   FSM 72/86 69/87 4423

PW

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-301200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT MON JUL 29 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS RESULTED
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING.  WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...A FEW
STORMS COULD APPROACH MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

TvHIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY
FROM MID MARCH TO MID JUNE...AND AS NEEDED AT OTHER TIMES OF THE
YEAR.