Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 PM CDT WED JUN 5 1996

BIG PROBLEM FOR FORECAST IS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  QUESTION IS WILL THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO
FEED ON IT.  MY FIRST GUESS IS YES AS WATER VAPOR AND 12Z NGM HINT
AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD FORECING DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION.  THUS...HAVE UPPED POPS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT
AND ADDED TIMING OF EXPECTED CHANCE.  TOOK OUT MENTION OF LATE
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW SINCE COMPLEX MAY STILL BE
ALIVE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOOKED AT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND THINK THEY ARE BETTER THAN FWC NUMBERS INDICATE AND NUDGED POPS
UP SOME FOR LATE AFTERNOON TUL AREA AND FOR TOMORROW EVENING TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH.  MODELS SHOW CAP WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT AND CONVERGENCE FROM FRONT SHOULD BE AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT.
ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE BSINCE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUICY AND
2ND DAY OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK.

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ABBAS