Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT MON JUN 3 1996

WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY FM FSM TO N OF MLC
TO OKC TO GAG.  THIS BNDRY HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR AFTN TSTRMS
OVR WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF OK.  ATMS ALG AND S OF THE BNDRY REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE M/U 60S AND LIS ARND -4 TO -6.  WL
KP A CLOSE EYE ON MVMT OF CONVECTION...BUT PLAN ON LOW POPS THIS
EVE FOR THE SRN ZNS...MAINLY S OF A MLC TO FSM LN.  THINK MOST OF
THE TSTRMS SHUD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET.

FA WL REMAIN UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.  WK
BNDRY EXPECTED TO BE OVR SRN OK/NRN TX BY TUE...AS IMPROVING LLVL
FLOW DRAWS H85 MOISTURE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK DURG THE AFTN.  UPR
SUPPORT DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH IMPROVING LLVL
MOISTURE/WAA...WL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS MOST AREAS FOR TUE AFTN.

CHCS FOR PCPN LOOK MUCH BTR TUE NGT.  H85 FLOW IMPROVES OVR MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WL PULL A BAND OF +10C H85 DWPTS IN CNTRL
OK/KS BY 00Z/WED.  NGM SHOWS DECENT H7 VORT MAX MVG THRU FA OVRNGT
WITH EXCELLENT H2/H3 UPR DIVG ACRS THE RGN.  THINK MCS DVLPMT A GD
PSBLTY...PROBABLY OVR WRN KS TUE EVE/NGT...IN AREA OF BEST
UPSLOPE/LLVL JET.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WL DROP SE THRU
ERN OK/NW AR.  HVY RNFL A GD BET AS WELL WITH K INDEX VALUES FCST
BTWN 35-40.

UPR SHRTWV MVS E OF THE AREA BY WED AS MID LVL HGTS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  WL INCLUDE POPS ALL ZNS FOR MAINLY MRNG
TSTRMS...WITH SOME CLRG PSBL OVR WRN SECTIONS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS NOT TOO BAD...BUT DID RAISE POPS ALL AREAS
FOR TUE NGT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL 59/82 65/83 1354
FSM 58/83 62/84 2354
MLC 60/85 65/85 2354
BVO 57/83 64/85 1354
FYV 54/80 59/81 1254
IDB 60/85 64/85 2254
BYV 52/79 58/80 1254

HODGES

OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-041200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT MON JUN 3 1996

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE AREA WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IS MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  BY MID
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR A FORT SMITH TO MCALESTER
LINE.  THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVIDES DRIER AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TO ITS NORTH FROM MOIST AIR WITH
DEW POINTS NEAR 70 TO ITS SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND THOSE TO ITS
SOUTH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  BY MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  THIS DAY TIME HEATING
AND MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE
UNSTABLE.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BECOME SEVERE.  DUE TO A WEAK
WIND PROFILE ALOFT...THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER
ATMOSHPERE...ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS. ACTIVATIHON MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-041200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CDT MON JUN 3 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TULSA
TO FAYETTEVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 PM FOR
CREEK...TULSA...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH...SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...PITTSBURG...LATIMER...
LE FLORE AND MCCURTAIN COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FOR
CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE
INITIAL STORMS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WHICH
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM IN THE AREA MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...DOWNBURSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SPOTTER ORGANIZvATIONS IN THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVATED AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.