Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 21 1996

MID 60S DWPTS SURGED ALL THE WAY INTO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SVR STORMS NOW EXTNDING FROM N OF TUL BACK TO THE SW INTO NW TX
ALONG H85 MOIST AXIS. SVR WX AND TOR THREAT WILL CONT WELL INTO
TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW STILL OUT IN TX PH AND FNT JUST INTO NW ARK.
THREAT FOR VRY HVY RAINS WILL EXIST AS TRW CONTS TO TRAIN NE ALONG
H85 MOIST AXIS. CUD SEE SOME 4-6 INCH AMTS...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE
FFA FOR ALL BUT ZN77 FOR TONIGHT WITH 90-100% POPS AND MENTION SVR
IN ALL ZNS.

ETA SLOWEST IN DRYING AREA OUT MONDAY WITH H5 TROF AND VORT MAX
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF YET TO MOVE THRU SRN PLAINS MONDAY. FNT SHUD
PUSH INTO NE OK LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO SE OK/NW ARK BY LATE MON
MORN. WILL KEEP RW/TRW LIKELY IN SE ZNS AND WORD AS SCT RW IN NRN
ZNS. CLDS WILL DECREASE LATE MONDAY FROM THE NW.

THINGS WILL DRY OUT AS SFC HI BUILDS INTO FA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE WITH
TMPS IN 60S TO MID 70S.

TUL  053/062 043/068 048 +500
FSM  060/068 046/072 042 8810
MLC  058/066 047/073 048 87-0
BVO  049/062 040/070 049 9400
FYV  058/064 042/068 039 +910
IDB  061/072 050/074 045 8820
BYV  058/063 040/067 038 +910

.TUL...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZNS 54>76 TONIGHT.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZNS 1/2/10/11/19/29 TONIGHT.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-221100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 21 1996

...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE
SURFACE WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THREE MAIN AREAS.

ONE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE DRY-LINE IN NORTHWEST TEXAS NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND
ABILENE TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A
PONCA CITY TO LAWTON LINE AROUND SUNSET. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT.

A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVERGENCE OR LIFTING WAS OBSERVED
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS AREA MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST AND
EASTCENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ALL OF THESE AREAS...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALSO FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES
WITH THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE AFTER 5 PM...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATION BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND
SPOTTER GR`OUPS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AND SHOULD MAINTAIN
A HIGH STATE OF READINESS FOR LIKELY ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
331 PM CDT SUN APR 21 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0231 PM    KEYSTONE LAKE SOUTHWEST   OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/21/96   CREEK

0313 PM    SKIATOOK                  OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/21/96   TULSA