Tornado Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
254 PM EDT MON OCT 07 1996

SUGGESTIONS...
 NOTHING CONCERNING CURRENT STATUS OF FLOOD WATCH/WIND WARNING
 TUESDAY POPS RANGING FROM CHC NORTHWEST TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST

DISCUSSION...
 WACKY LOOKING JOSEPHINE QUICKLY MOVG NORTHEAST (REFER TO TPC ADVISORIES
ON THE SYSTEM FOR ALL DETAILS). FORECAST AREA STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. SATELLITE & RADAR SHOWING SYSTEM BREAKING INTO
2 MAIN BLOBS...ONE GOING NORTH OF TAMPA AND THE OTHER SOUTH. HEAVY FLOODING
RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE SUBSIDING...BUT STILL LOTS ON THE RADAR SO SOME
LOCALLY HVY RAIN POSSIBLE. BIGGER CONCERN IS STILL COASTAL FLOODING AND
STORM TIDES. LATEST DATA FROM ST PETE PIER AND CLEARWATER INDICATING LEVELS
ARE RISING SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON DOWNTREND OF TIDAL CYCLE AS WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO SWING AROUND TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND PILING UP THE WATER
SOMEWHAT. SATELLITE SEEMING TO CONFIRM THE "STRETCHING OUT" OF THE SYSTEM
AS THE MODELS DEPICT...AND THIS COULD PUT MUCH OF THE WEST COAST UNDER FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
 AS FOR TOMORROW...LOOKS LIKE SOME TROFINESS WILL HANG BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO DEVELOP. DRIER AIR...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MEAN BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.

LOOKS LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND BRING THAT FALL FEELING BACK.

 QUICK LITTLE SCIENCE NOTE...88D STORM TOTAL PRODUCTS SHOWED VERY VERY
NICELY THE LONG TRACK SHALLOW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WHICH OCCURRED LAST
NITE AND TODAY. MORE ARE LIKELY...THE 18Z TBW SOUNDING HAS A HELICITY
OF 375! GONNA BE A BUSY EVENING.

THANKS MLB FOR DISCUSSIONS.

TEMPERATURE/POP THOUGHTS...
 BKV 70/83/66/84 +300   TPA 74/82/69/85 +400   FMY 76/83/73/86 +500

NASH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-071900-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1025 AM EDT MON OCT 7 1996

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...
...FLOODING ALSO LIKELY...

AS TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE APPROACHES THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SPECIFICALLY...TORANDOES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS JOSEPHINE APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND FLOODING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO EVEN UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS TO FLOOD. ALSO SOME SMALLER RIVERS MAY RISE QUICKLY...SO PERSONS
LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ALL PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN bIN CLOSE TOUCH WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

ALL STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO
OUR OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

NASH