Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
305 PM EST SAT MAR 30 1996

WELL...JUST ABOUT AS EXPECTED SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY CRANKING
UP ACROSS THE AREA. ISOL HAIL PRODUCING SVR TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE ENE...THEN DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF SUNSHINE. BEST CHC OF PRECIP FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WILL
BE TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE BLOB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SHOULD BE AN EVENING VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF FLORIDA MONDAY...WITH WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
TRAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF FL...SO WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...SCT TSTMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE...ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
BE LACKING. AGREE WITH `AFDMLB` THAT WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS ALOFT...
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED HAIL TSTMS AGAIN.

NO TIME FOR MY TEMPERATURE/POP THOUGHTS...BUT LOOKING OVER THE NUMBERS
FROM MIA -- I HAVE NO REASON TO ARGUE ANYTHING MUCH DIFFERENT.

NASH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-301900-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1135 AM EST SAT MAR 30 1996

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WARM AND UNSTABLE...WHILE COLD
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ALL ADD UP TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF A BROOKSVILLE TO ORLANDO LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. FROM THE TAMPA AREA SOUTH TO FORT
MYERS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SEA BREEZE. THIS
SEA BREEZE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH EAST...AFFECTING INLAND
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER AND MOVE INDOORS AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. BOATERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO RETURN TO PORT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF APPROACH
THE COAST.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ASKED TO
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN RUSKIN.

NASH