Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST MON DEC 16 1996

MDLS CONSISTENT IN DVLPG MONSTROUS MID/UPR CLOSED LO CNTRD OVR NRN
PLAINS/UPR MS VLY AND COVERING MOST OF CONUS THRU END OF PD...WITH
SERN STATES REMAINING IN SW FLO ALOFT ON LEADING EDGE OF TROF.
HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES END THERE. ETA AND NGM ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT
IN HANDLING MOVEMENT OF SFC TROF AND PRECIP ACRS FCST AREA AS S/WV OVR
LA ATTM LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS THRU NXT 18 TO 24 HRS. NGM RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FIELDS DURG NXT 24 HRS...AND FWC REFLECTS
THIS WITH 20 TO 40 PCT POPS. MEANWHILE...WET ETA GIVES US OVER AN INCH
OF PRECIP AT TLH BY 00Z WED. SINCE FAN GUID HAS MUCH HIER POPS...NGM
SEEMS TO BE ODD MAN OUT. ALTHO 12HR MDL SOLUTIONS DIFFER LITTLE...QUIK
COMPARISON SHOWS BEST AGREEMENT BETW SFC FEATURES/QPF WITH ETA MDL...
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA. THAT BEING THE CASE...FEEL THAT POPS NEED
TO BE CHANGED RADICALLY IN NW FL ZONES. TIMING OF PRECIP MAY BE BEST
IN TLH 12Z MM5 MDL RUN...WHICH HAS PRECIP ARRIVING TLH AREA ARND 09Z
TUE. WITH THAT IN MIND...FOR NW FL...WOULD FAVOR INTRODUCING AT LEAST
40 PCT POP FOR AFTER MIDNITE TONITE AND 50/60 PCT POP FOR TUE. EXPC
MOST OF PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AND LIFT NNE OF FCST AREA BY MIDDAY TUE AS
S/WV WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD...ALTHO LINGERING WEAK VORT LOBE MAY BE
ENUF TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCTD SHRA TUE AFTN.

MEANWHILE...STILL DEALING WITH SVR TSTM WATCH OVR FL PNHNDL/SE AL.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE OFF KEVX RADAR SHOWS SR HELICITIES IN 300 TO
450 RANGE. LUCKILY...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND
CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND IN WARM SECTOR MOVG NWD FM GULFMEX ACRS
PNHNDL INTO S AL...TO W OF PAM/DHN. TLH 00Z RAOB SHOWS LI OF PLUS 9.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

MOORE