Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
158 PM CDT WED SEP 18 1996

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WITH A
FEW OTHERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
EARLIER STORMS HAVE LEFT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CUT DOWN ON SOME
OF THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AND INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. NICE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND STILL BELIEVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
...NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND THE BIG COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN.
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WEST OF LUBBOCK TO WEST OF MIDLAND AT
18Z.

KSJT WIND PROFILE SHOWING DECENT SHEAR...WITH PROJECTED CAPES IN THE
2000 TO 3000 RANGE...POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE LOOKS REASONABLE.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WITH LESSER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. NUMBERS SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE CHANGES DUE TO
LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS.

ABI 070/086 33
SJT 073/088 22

PMCCULLOUGH