Tornado Warning 27, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
150 AM CST THU NOV 7 1996

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LO FORMING ALG CDFNT IN CNTRL TX JUST
NE OF ACT WHICH IS CAUSING NRN PORTION OF FNT TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS
TO THE SE WHILE SRN PORTIONS IS STILL MOVG TO THE S THRU CNTRL TX.
WIND PROFILERS AHEAD OF FNT AT PAT AND DQU CONT TO INDICATE VERY STG
LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE S...UP TO 55 KTS AT H850...WHILE VAD WP FROM
KFWS SHOWING STG NW WNDS IN THE LOW LVLS. STG WAA AHEAD OF THE FNT
AS WELL AS MSTR CONVERGENCE NOTED ALG THE FNT FROM ADAP GRAPHICS IN
N CNTRL TX SHUD START TO SHIFT EAST INTO E TX BY 12Z. MODELS ALL PUSH
CDFNT ACRS NW HALF OF CWA BY 12Z PUSHING IT TO A PSOITION BETWEEN
TXK AND SHV BY THAT TIME. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FNT WILL ALLOW
BEST MSTR CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ALG THE FNT WITH TSTM CELLS CONTG TO
MOV TO THE NE ALG IT. SHUD MAKE FOR HEAVY RAINS THRU THE MRNG HOURS
ACRS PART OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. PROGS KEEP BEST THETA E AIR ACRS
THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z...BEFORE PUSHING THETA E RDG TO THE SE
PORTONS OF CWA BY 18Z. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN PROGS IN TERMS OF CDFNT
MOVEMENT AS WELL AS MOVEMENT OUT OF CNTRL TX THIS MRNG OF VORT LOBE.

THIS VORT LOBE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BOOST FNT NEEDS TO GET THRU THE
ENTIRE CWA BY ERLY AFTN. VORT LOBE AND GOOD JET DYNAMICS FCST INTO E TX
BY 12Z WHERE IT SHUD INTERACT WITH FNT. FNT WILL PICK UP SPEED AS THIS
OCCURS AND START TO MOV MUCH MORE RAPIDLY TO THE E. BEST SVR THREAT
LIKELY AS THIS VORT LOBE PUSHES INTO SW AR AND NW LA AFTER 12Z THEN
SWINGS TO THE NE. SIG CAA BEHIND FNT SHUD PUSH INTO WRN PARTS OF CWA
THIS MRNG THEN INTO REST OF CWA DRNG THE AFTN AS FNT MOVS COMPLETELY
THRU BY 20Z.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF FNT ACRS E TX AND SE OK THIS MRNG...HEAVY RAIN
MORE LIKELY THESE AREAS AND SW AR THRU MID MRNG. SUGGEST MAINTAINING
FLASH FLLOD WATCHES THRU THE MORNING AS RAINS SHUD CONT EVEN WHERE
FNT PASSES BEFORE 12Z. DO NOT THINK FFA IS NEEDED FOR LA OR ERN PORTIONS
OF SW AR WHERE FNT WILL PASS THRU FASTER DRNG THE MRNG. DAMAGING WINDS
MORE LIKELY THESE LOCATIONS.

WILL RAISE POPS ABV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TODAY AND STAY CLOSE REST OF
FCST. TEMPS TRICKY. TEMP WILL LIKELY FALL DRNG THE DAY SE OK...NE TX
AND PARTS OF SW AR WHERE CAA STARTS ERLY TODAY. ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...TEMP SHUD RISE SOME DRNG THE MRNG BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTN. FOR
SHV...TXK...LFK AREAS TEMP WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEFORE FALLING AFTER
FROPA MID MRNG. AVN MOS TEMPS LOOK TOO LOW WHILE NGM MOS TOO HIGH FOR
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF CWA. WILL USE A COMBINATION OF OF AVN AND NGM
MOS FOR SHV AREA BUT CLOSER TO NGM FOR MLU.

SHV 70/40/67 810   MLU 77/44/68 820

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ARZ050-051-059-060-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>
152-165-070945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
151 AM CST THU NOV 7 1996

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AT 150 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A 30
MILE WIDE LINE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO
CLARKSVILLE TEXAS TO CANTON AND FAIRFIELD.

THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH FROM DE QUEEN TO CANTON AND EAST
AT 40 MPH FROM CANTON SOUTH.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IN AN HOURS TIME AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER-
STORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS FAR WEST AS WACO AND DALLAS.

IV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CST THU NOV 07 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 AM    MT PLEASANT               TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   TITUS                          TRAFFIC LIGHTS BLOWN DOWN.

0310 AM    JACKSONVILLE              TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   CHEROKEE                       NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE.

0315 AM    GILMER                    TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   UPSHUR                         NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS
                                          HIGHWAY 155.

0320 AM   ORE CITY                   TX   WIND DAMAGE
11/07/96  UPSHUR                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG
                                          HWY 259 FROM ORE CITY TO
                                          DIANA.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CST THU NOV 07 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 AM    MT PLEASANT               TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   TITUS                          TRAFFIC LIGHTS BLOWN DOWN.

0310 AM    JACKSONVILLE              TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   CHEROKEE                       NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE.

0315 AM    GILMER                    TX   WIND DAMAGE.
11/07/96   UPSHUR                         NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS
                                          HIGHWAY 155.

0320 AM   OR>E CITY                   TX   WIND DAMAGE
11/07/96  UPSHUR                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG
                                          HWY 259 FROM ORE CITY TO
                                          DIANA.

13

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-TXZ096-097-108>
112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
512 AM CST THU NOV 7 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AT 515 AM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO BOSSIER CITY
LOUISIANA TO NEAR SAM RAYBURN RESERVOIR IN TEXAS. BEHIND THIS LINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHELBY...SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE
COUNTIES AND HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COLUMBIA AND UNION COUNTIES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 900 AM ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

18

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-TXZ096-097-108>
112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
512 AM CST THU NOV 7 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AT 515 AM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO BOSSIER CITY
LOUISIANA TO NEAR SAM RAYBURN RESERVOIR IN TEXAS. BEHIND THIS LINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHELBY...SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE
COUNTIES AND HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AzRKANSAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COLUMBIA AND UNION COUNTIES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 900 AM ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

18